Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MSU wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
TOL
Games
4
Plays per game
66.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
0.3 (67th, offence 67th, defence 68th)
Returning production
66% (pass 99%, rush 26%, receiving 58%)
MSU
Games
4
Plays per game
66.5
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
0.3 (67th, offence 80th, defence 58th)
Returning production
21% (pass 16%, rush 19%, receiving 24%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TOL
MSU
pass rate, all downs
49%63rd
46%84th
pass rate, standard downs
45%43rd
39%95th
pass rate, 1st down
42%83rd
42%81st
no-huddle share
86%29th
21%110th
pass rate, passing downs
57%100th
68%49th
pass rate, red zone
41%58th
38%70th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.082nd
32.410th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TOL offence
TOL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.269
264
34 of 138
success rate
0.447
264
62 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.527
264
1 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.106
264
75 of 138
rush: success rate
0.415
264
96 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.067
264
30 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.440
264
24 of 138
pass: success rate
0.484
264
40 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.935
264
7 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
264
63 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
264
59 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.077
264
74 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.170
264
75 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
264
106 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.552
264
37 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
264
62 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
264
38 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
264
97 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.300
264
106 of 138
MSU offence
MSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.033
266
115 of 138
success rate
0.444
266
65 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.082
266
130 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
266
117 of 138
rush: success rate
0.415
266
95 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.848
266
104 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.155
266
93 of 138
pass: success rate
0.483
266
41 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.347
266
121 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.505
266
55 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.278
266
98 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.923
266
97 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.204
266
108 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
266
90 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.346
266
105 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.192
266
128 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.128
266
130 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
266
94 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.300
266
105 of 138
TOL defence
TOL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.023
289
39 of 138
success rate
0.325
289
15 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.302
289
95 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.095
289
29 of 138
rush: success rate
0.283
289
9 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.958
289
82 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.170
289
79 of 138
pass: success rate
0.391
289
69 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.580
289
82 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.386
289
19 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.210
289
16 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.621
289
46 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
289
85 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.389
289
3 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.875
289
41 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
289
31 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.073
289
24 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
289
72 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.700
289
30 of 138
MSU defence
MSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.151
232
103 of 138
success rate
0.427
232
96 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.234
232
72 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.060
232
81 of 138
rush: success rate
0.455
232
110 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.854
232
42 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.212
232
90 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
232
53 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.723
232
114 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
232
97 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.301
232
89 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.759
232
58 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.260
232
128 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
232
35 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
232
86 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.151
232
52 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.095
232
62 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
232
58 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.300
232
75 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs