Toledo · away
at
Final TOL 20 – 30 MSU
Friday 2026-09-04 20:00 · Spartan Stadium
Michigan State · home
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The trenches

Pass rushsack ratestopped behind the linefacessacks allowedpairing
MSU pass rush6.8% 10341st9.8% 22446thfaces TOL2.1% 9612th4.4% ~1.5 sacks
TOL pass rush7.1% 9937th6.9% 218110thfaces MSU10.2% 118130th8.6% ~2.8 sacks

sacks from CFBD play-by-play; college has no charted pressure, and these rates are not opponent-adjusted Measured on 7,926 team-games 2022–25: a college line's sacks-allowed rate carries +0.27 into its next game and a defence's sack rate only +0.10 — the line is most of this. The pairing predicts the game's sack rate +0.27, yards per dropback −0.16 and points added per play −0.15. Heaviest quarter of pairings against lightest: 7.8% vs 4.2% sack rate, 6.1 vs 7.2 yards per dropback.

TOL with the ball

TOL offence vs MSU defenceTOL offenceMSU defencerank gap
points added per play0.26934th0.151103rd+69
success rate0.44762nd0.42796th+34
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.5271st1.23472nd+71
rush: points added per play0.10675th0.06081st+6
rush: success rate0.41596th0.455110th+14
rush: explosiveness1.06730th0.85442nd+12
pass: points added per play0.44024th0.21290th+66
pass: success rate0.48440th0.37953rd+13
pass: explosiveness1.9357th1.723114th+107
standard downs: success rate0.49763rd0.48497th+34
passing downs: success rate0.32959th0.30189th+30
line yards per rush (the O-line)3.07774th2.75958th-16
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.17075th0.260128th+53
short-yardage conversion rate0.667106th0.63235th-71
points per trip inside the 404.55237th3.60086th+49
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.13662nd0.15152nd-10
havoc allowed by the front seven0.07238th0.09562nd+24
havoc allowed by the secondary0.06497th0.05658th-39
average starting field position (yards from own goal)68.300106th——

MSU with the ball

MSU offence vs TOL defenceMSU offenceTOL defencerank gap
points added per play0.033115th-0.02339th-76
success rate0.44465th0.32515th-50
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.082130th1.30295th-35
rush: points added per play-0.008117th-0.09529th-88
rush: success rate0.41595th0.2839th-86
rush: explosiveness0.848104th0.95882nd-22
pass: points added per play0.15593rd0.17079th-14
pass: success rate0.48341st0.39169th+28
pass: explosiveness1.347121st1.58082nd-39
standard downs: success rate0.50555th0.38619th-36
passing downs: success rate0.27898th0.21016th-82
line yards per rush (the O-line)2.92397th2.62146th-51
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.204108th0.20785th-23
short-yardage conversion rate0.71490th0.3893rd-87
points per trip inside the 403.346105th2.87541st-64
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.192128th0.13531st-97
havoc allowed by the front seven0.128130th0.07324th-106
havoc allowed by the secondary0.06494th0.06272nd-22
average starting field position (yards from own goal)68.300105th——

Rank gap = the defence's FBS rank minus the offence's on the same measure: +60 means the offence ranks 60 places better than the defence it faces. Unit against unit only — college has no player charting to name a matchup by.