Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LOU wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
PITT
Games
4
Plays per game
73.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
14.7 (20th, offence 36th, defence 15th)
Returning production
40% (pass 59%, rush 67%, receiving 24%)
LOU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.5
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
9.9 (36th, offence 19th, defence 66th)
Returning production
35% (pass 0%, rush 85%, receiving 18%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
PITT
LOU
pass rate, all downs
53%31st
46%86th
pass rate, standard downs
47%26th
39%91st
pass rate, 1st down
47%36th
41%87th
no-huddle share
23%107th
31%101st
pass rate, passing downs
68%44th
68%51st
pass rate, red zone
57%8th
36%82nd
seconds per play (own drives)
26.5110th
28.083rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
PITT offence
PITT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.294
292
25 of 138
success rate
0.497
292
26 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.249
292
60 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.078
292
86 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
292
62 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.809
292
111 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.507
292
16 of 138
pass: success rate
0.530
292
14 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.595
292
58 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.528
292
40 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.412
292
13 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.309
292
39 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.182
292
88 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
292
115 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.233
292
55 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.096
292
13 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.058
292
20 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
292
27 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
292
73 of 138
LOU offence
LOU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.344
270
12 of 138
success rate
0.500
270
24 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.353
270
23 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.203
270
39 of 138
rush: success rate
0.486
270
35 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.034
270
43 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.487
270
18 of 138
pass: success rate
0.516
270
23 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.663
270
43 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.563
270
16 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.324
270
64 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.809
270
111 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.194
270
96 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.722
270
84 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.393
270
40 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.141
270
70 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
270
114 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.030
270
13 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
270
82 of 138
PITT defence
PITT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.107
240
18 of 138
success rate
0.287
240
2 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.379
240
119 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.178
240
12 of 138
rush: success rate
0.278
240
7 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.995
240
92 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.012
240
28 of 138
pass: success rate
0.306
240
11 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.620
240
93 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.345
240
6 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
240
10 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
1.777
240
2 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.320
240
137 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.538
240
12 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.688
240
3 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
240
92 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
240
104 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
240
75 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
240
124 of 138
LOU defence
LOU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.106
286
89 of 138
success rate
0.402
286
75 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.238
286
76 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.015
286
53 of 138
rush: success rate
0.430
286
92 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.710
286
15 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.378
286
124 of 138
pass: success rate
0.381
286
58 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.964
286
136 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.455
286
76 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.274
286
61 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.021
286
98 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.121
286
6 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.517
286
11 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.615
286
87 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
286
33 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.073
286
23 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
286
74 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.100
286
52 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs