Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MIA wins about 91% of the time at a number like ours.
VT
Games
4
Plays per game
79.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
12.3 (28th, offence 27th, defence 30th)
Returning production
37% (pass 0%, rush 31%, receiving 54%)
MIA
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
25.7 (5th, offence 8th, defence 8th)
Returning production
37% (pass 6%, rush 91%, receiving 45%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
VT
MIA
pass rate, all downs
51%50th
49%64th
pass rate, standard downs
43%54th
42%65th
pass rate, 1st down
42%75th
43%66th
no-huddle share
40%90th
31%100th
pass rate, passing downs
70%36th
70%37th
pass rate, red zone
42%53rd
40%59th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.1120th
29.949th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
VT offence
VT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.241
316
42 of 138
success rate
0.484
316
36 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
316
82 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.149
316
60 of 138
rush: success rate
0.503
316
23 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
316
69 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.357
316
46 of 138
pass: success rate
0.471
316
51 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.475
316
91 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.504
316
57 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.427
316
9 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.994
316
88 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.200
316
103 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
316
73 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.567
316
35 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.111
316
25 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.089
316
76 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.022
316
5 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.400
316
123 of 138
MIA offence
MIA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.442
280
2 of 138
success rate
0.571
280
3 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.278
280
50 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.123
280
72 of 138
rush: success rate
0.511
280
21 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.982
280
63 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.839
280
1 of 138
pass: success rate
0.654
280
1 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.489
280
88 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.630
280
2 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.375
280
29 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.887
280
4 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.121
280
15 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.812
280
31 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.057
280
14 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.068
280
4 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.046
280
9 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.021
280
3 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.000
280
79 of 138
VT defence
VT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.030
236
38 of 138
success rate
0.331
236
18 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.309
236
99 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.147
236
17 of 138
rush: success rate
0.269
236
6 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.306
236
135 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.142
236
73 of 138
pass: success rate
0.391
236
70 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.340
236
19 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.413
236
39 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.204
236
12 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
0.986
236
1 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.403
236
138 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
236
18 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.522
236
19 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.267
236
138 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.220
236
138 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.047
236
35 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.100
236
71 of 138
MIA defence
MIA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.049
228
31 of 138
success rate
0.325
228
14 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.149
228
42 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.158
228
14 of 138
rush: success rate
0.257
228
1 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.719
228
16 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.024
228
35 of 138
pass: success rate
0.362
228
35 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.303
228
14 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.379
228
17 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.229
228
28 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.153
228
7 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.270
228
130 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
228
16 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.308
228
15 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
228
71 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.096
228
64 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.066
228
87 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.000
228
129 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs