Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MIA wins about 95% of the time at a number like ours.
DUKE
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
10.2 (34th, offence 29th, defence 42nd)
Returning production
17% (pass 4%, rush 43%, receiving 20%)
MIA
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
25.7 (5th, offence 8th, defence 8th)
Returning production
37% (pass 6%, rush 91%, receiving 45%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
DUKE
MIA
pass rate, all downs
39%124th
49%64th
pass rate, standard downs
33%119th
42%65th
pass rate, 1st down
28%132nd
43%66th
no-huddle share
11%119th
31%100th
pass rate, passing downs
53%119th
70%37th
pass rate, red zone
44%39th
40%59th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.912th
29.949th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
DUKE offence
DUKE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.295
280
24 of 138
success rate
0.446
280
63 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.327
280
28 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.234
280
30 of 138
rush: success rate
0.423
280
91 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.144
280
14 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.427
280
27 of 138
pass: success rate
0.476
280
46 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.659
280
44 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.492
280
69 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.337
280
55 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.323
280
37 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.161
280
60 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
280
64 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.677
280
26 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
280
6 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.043
280
4 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.046
280
53 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.900
280
110 of 138
MIA offence
MIA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.442
280
2 of 138
success rate
0.571
280
3 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.278
280
50 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.123
280
72 of 138
rush: success rate
0.511
280
21 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.982
280
63 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.839
280
1 of 138
pass: success rate
0.654
280
1 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.489
280
88 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.630
280
2 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.375
280
29 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.887
280
4 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.121
280
15 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.812
280
31 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.057
280
14 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.068
280
4 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.046
280
9 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.021
280
3 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.000
280
79 of 138
DUKE defence
DUKE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.064
235
27 of 138
success rate
0.353
235
32 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.071
235
20 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.205
235
10 of 138
rush: success rate
0.323
235
21 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.439
235
3 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.027
235
36 of 138
pass: success rate
0.374
235
47 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.455
235
49 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.444
235
64 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.183
235
3 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.623
235
47 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.172
235
40 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
235
58 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.588
235
22 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
235
99 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.106
235
81 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.077
235
108 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.700
235
104 of 138
MIA defence
MIA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.049
228
31 of 138
success rate
0.325
228
14 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.149
228
42 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.158
228
14 of 138
rush: success rate
0.257
228
1 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.719
228
16 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.024
228
35 of 138
pass: success rate
0.362
228
35 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.303
228
14 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.379
228
17 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.229
228
28 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.153
228
7 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.270
228
130 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
228
16 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.308
228
15 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
228
71 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.096
228
64 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.066
228
87 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.000
228
129 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs