Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ND wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
MIA
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
25.7 (5th, offence 8th, defence 8th)
Returning production
37% (pass 6%, rush 91%, receiving 45%)
ND
Games
4
Plays per game
64.5
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
28.1 (3rd, offence 4th, defence 2nd)
Returning production
51% (pass 91%, rush 12%, receiving 38%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MIA
ND
pass rate, all downs
49%64th
45%91st
pass rate, standard downs
42%65th
42%66th
pass rate, 1st down
43%66th
42%73rd
no-huddle share
31%100th
61%71st
pass rate, passing downs
70%37th
58%98th
pass rate, red zone
40%59th
36%79th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.949th
31.220th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MIA offence
MIA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.442
280
2 of 138
success rate
0.571
280
3 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.278
280
50 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.123
280
72 of 138
rush: success rate
0.511
280
21 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.982
280
63 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.839
280
1 of 138
pass: success rate
0.654
280
1 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.489
280
88 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.630
280
2 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.375
280
29 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.887
280
4 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.121
280
15 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.812
280
31 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.057
280
14 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.068
280
4 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.046
280
9 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.021
280
3 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.000
280
79 of 138
ND offence
ND offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.333
258
13 of 138
success rate
0.516
258
13 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.116
258
122 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.142
258
65 of 138
rush: success rate
0.482
258
38 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
258
114 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.563
258
11 of 138
pass: success rate
0.558
258
11 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.459
258
96 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.599
258
6 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.214
258
132 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.943
258
93 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.153
258
53 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
258
62 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.286
258
6 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.101
258
16 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.035
258
3 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.066
258
101 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
258
44 of 138
MIA defence
MIA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.049
228
31 of 138
success rate
0.325
228
14 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.149
228
42 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.158
228
14 of 138
rush: success rate
0.257
228
1 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.719
228
16 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.024
228
35 of 138
pass: success rate
0.362
228
35 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.303
228
14 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.379
228
17 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.229
228
28 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.153
228
7 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.270
228
130 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
228
16 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.308
228
15 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
228
71 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.096
228
64 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.066
228
87 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.000
228
129 of 138
ND defence
ND defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.119
225
15 of 138
success rate
0.342
225
24 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.138
225
37 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.229
225
8 of 138
rush: success rate
0.304
225
12 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.812
225
30 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.021
225
26 of 138
pass: success rate
0.374
225
48 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.378
225
25 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.390
225
22 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.253
225
44 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.321
225
16 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
225
103 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
225
77 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.625
225
2 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.240
225
135 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.169
225
134 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.071
225
99 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.300
225
76 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs