Betting
Spread
MIA favouredMarket ND −6.5Ours ND −5.7
ND favouredgap 0.8 toward MIA
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| MIA away | +6.5 | 24.0 | +195 | 32.5% | — |
| ND home | -6.5 | 30.5 | -238 | 67.5% | — |
| Total | 54.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| MIA away | +5.5 | 24.4 | 35.1% | -1.0 |
| ND home | -5.5 | 30.1 | 64.9% | +1.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
Nothing to show for this game.
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | MIA | ND |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +10.93rd | +10.74th |
| Defence (cards) | +2.516th | +4.52nd |
| Card team rating | +13.45th | +15.22nd |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +25.75th | +28.13rd |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +1.17th | +1.52nd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.95th | +2.22nd |
| Card line | ND -5.7 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 37% | 51% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Darian Mensah MIA93 ▲2 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.861
Completion88.7%
TD–INT14-0
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game295
Rush yards, median game13
Games this season4
Team throws per game33.0
CJ Carr ND93 ▲1 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.595
Completion70.5%
TD–INT9-1
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game238
Rush yards, median game5
Games this season4
Team throws per game28.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| MIA away | 3-1 | 75% | +6.3 | 3-1 | +5.5 |
| ND home | 3-1 | 75% | +3.6 | 2-2 | -1.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| MIA | all | won 7 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| MIA | away | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| MIA | non-division | covered 10 straight — next game covered 46.6% of the time (58 cases) |
| MIA | non-division | won 10 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| ND | all | won 14 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| ND | home | won 9 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (5637 cases) |
| ND | favourite | won 14 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| ND | home favourite | won 9 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (5637 cases) |
| ND | non-division | won 14 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| ND | home non-division | won 9 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (5637 cases) |
Streak picker (spread): bets ND — MIA has covered 10 straight as non-division.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Notre Dame Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| MIA | O. Ruskavich TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Ruskavich is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face against Clemson on Saturday. |
| MIA | M. Fletcher Jr. RB | questionable Upper Body | Sun, Sep 27 | Fletcher Jr is hampered by upper body injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Clemson on Saturday, October 3th. |
| MIA | J. Moore WR | out Upper Body | Mon, Sep 21 | Moore is battling with an upper body injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season. |
| MIA | C. Brown RB | out Lower Body | Mon, Sep 21 | Brown is dealing with a lower body injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| MIA | L. Gilbert TE | out Undisclosed | Tue, Aug 11 | Gilbert has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season |
| ND | Q. Porter WR | out Knee | Mon, Sep 28 | Porter is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season. |
| ND | B. Hebert QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Hebert is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Boilermakers on Friday, September 25th. |