Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). FSU wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
FSU
Games
4
Plays per game
62.2
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
5.7 (53rd, offence 35th, defence 74th)
Returning production
40% (pass 13%, rush 28%, receiving 65%)
BC
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-4.6 (90th, offence 106th, defence 65th)
Returning production
16% (pass 8%, rush -62%, receiving 23%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
FSU
BC
pass rate, all downs
44%102nd
46%87th
pass rate, standard downs
35%113th
32%124th
pass rate, 1st down
35%112th
30%125th
no-huddle share
69%61st
51%81st
pass rate, passing downs
64%60th
74%22nd
pass rate, red zone
35%83rd
36%80th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.069th
30.146th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
FSU offence
FSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.247
249
41 of 138
success rate
0.434
249
80 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.526
249
2 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.224
249
34 of 138
rush: success rate
0.442
249
79 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.131
249
16 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.367
249
42 of 138
pass: success rate
0.423
249
83 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.061
249
2 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
249
107 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.392
249
21 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.196
249
60 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
249
50 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
249
126 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.885
249
18 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.145
249
75 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.080
249
52 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
249
93 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.300
249
55 of 138
BC offence
BC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.032
262
127 of 138
success rate
0.389
262
115 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.164
262
101 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.006
262
115 of 138
rush: success rate
0.439
262
81 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.935
262
79 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.063
262
110 of 138
pass: success rate
0.357
262
126 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.533
262
74 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.460
262
99 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.244
262
116 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.847
262
103 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.252
262
134 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.688
262
98 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.091
262
118 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
262
120 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
262
112 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
262
107 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
262
58 of 138
FSU defence
FSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.219
276
125 of 138
success rate
0.435
276
102 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.350
276
111 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.134
276
111 of 138
rush: success rate
0.414
276
79 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.959
276
83 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.325
276
116 of 138
pass: success rate
0.458
276
111 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.654
276
102 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
276
109 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.316
276
103 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.010
276
95 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
276
47 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.929
276
135 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.524
276
80 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.156
276
58 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
276
75 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
276
49 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
276
95 of 138
BC defence
BC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.002
276
51 of 138
success rate
0.395
276
71 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.237
276
75 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.007
276
61 of 138
rush: success rate
0.390
276
59 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.030
276
101 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.155
276
76 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
276
92 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.492
276
56 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.398
276
27 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.388
276
133 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.016
276
96 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.195
276
72 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
276
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.391
276
69 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.174
276
83 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.120
276
107 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
276
48 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.700
276
29 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs