Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NCSU wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
DUKE
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
10.2 (34th, offence 29th, defence 42nd)
Returning production
17% (pass 4%, rush 43%, receiving 20%)
NCSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
3.4 (58th, offence 37th, defence 84th)
Returning production
60% (pass 93%, rush 101%, receiving 26%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
DUKE
NCSU
pass rate, all downs
39%124th
47%80th
pass rate, standard downs
33%119th
37%110th
pass rate, 1st down
28%132nd
41%86th
no-huddle share
11%119th
44%87th
pass rate, passing downs
53%119th
71%32nd
pass rate, red zone
44%39th
39%66th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.912th
28.971st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
DUKE offence
DUKE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.295
280
24 of 138
success rate
0.446
280
63 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.327
280
28 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.234
280
30 of 138
rush: success rate
0.423
280
91 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.144
280
14 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.427
280
27 of 138
pass: success rate
0.476
280
46 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.659
280
44 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.492
280
69 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.337
280
55 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.323
280
37 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.161
280
60 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
280
64 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.677
280
26 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
280
6 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.043
280
4 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.046
280
53 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.900
280
110 of 138
NCSU offence
NCSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.221
281
54 of 138
success rate
0.488
281
33 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.209
281
77 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.215
281
36 of 138
rush: success rate
0.493
281
30 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.037
281
41 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.257
281
67 of 138
pass: success rate
0.484
281
39 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
281
110 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.548
281
30 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
281
51 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.295
281
41 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.149
281
47 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.840
281
21 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.679
281
25 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
281
88 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.093
281
82 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
281
95 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.900
281
64 of 138
DUKE defence
DUKE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.064
235
27 of 138
success rate
0.353
235
32 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.071
235
20 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.205
235
10 of 138
rush: success rate
0.323
235
21 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.439
235
3 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.027
235
36 of 138
pass: success rate
0.374
235
47 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.455
235
49 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.444
235
64 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.183
235
3 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.623
235
47 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.172
235
40 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
235
58 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.588
235
22 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
235
99 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.106
235
81 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.077
235
108 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.700
235
104 of 138
NCSU defence
NCSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.120
243
93 of 138
success rate
0.399
243
74 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.250
243
82 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.067
243
84 of 138
rush: success rate
0.446
243
106 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.967
243
86 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.270
243
101 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
243
42 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.643
243
99 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
243
77 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.264
243
54 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.821
243
66 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.190
243
61 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
243
90 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.591
243
84 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
243
54 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
243
17 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.082
243
118 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.500
243
58 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs