Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). VT wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
VT
Games
4
Plays per game
79.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
12.3 (28th, offence 27th, defence 30th)
Returning production
37% (pass 0%, rush 31%, receiving 54%)
CLEM
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
4.9 (54th, offence 91st, defence 24th)
Returning production
41% (pass 14%, rush -38%, receiving 71%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
VT
CLEM
pass rate, all downs
51%50th
47%73rd
pass rate, standard downs
43%54th
43%56th
pass rate, 1st down
42%75th
45%51st
no-huddle share
40%90th
96%13th
pass rate, passing downs
70%36th
55%111th
pass rate, red zone
42%53rd
33%91st
seconds per play (own drives)
26.1120th
27.2100th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
VT offence
VT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.241
316
42 of 138
success rate
0.484
316
36 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
316
82 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.149
316
60 of 138
rush: success rate
0.503
316
23 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
316
69 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.357
316
46 of 138
pass: success rate
0.471
316
51 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.475
316
91 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.504
316
57 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.427
316
9 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.994
316
88 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.200
316
103 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
316
73 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.567
316
35 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.111
316
25 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.089
316
76 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.022
316
5 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.400
316
123 of 138
CLEM offence
CLEM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.027
260
125 of 138
success rate
0.342
260
132 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.175
260
94 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.093
260
82 of 138
rush: success rate
0.368
260
120 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.020
260
49 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.001
260
124 of 138
pass: success rate
0.328
260
131 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.400
260
114 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.405
260
129 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
260
125 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.764
260
114 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.211
260
114 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
260
35 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.095
260
117 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
260
127 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.146
260
136 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
260
39 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
260
71 of 138
VT defence
VT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.030
236
38 of 138
success rate
0.331
236
18 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.309
236
99 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.147
236
17 of 138
rush: success rate
0.269
236
6 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.306
236
135 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.142
236
73 of 138
pass: success rate
0.391
236
70 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.340
236
19 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.413
236
39 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.204
236
12 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
0.986
236
1 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.403
236
138 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
236
18 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.522
236
19 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.267
236
138 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.220
236
138 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.047
236
35 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.100
236
71 of 138
CLEM defence
CLEM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.017
288
58 of 138
success rate
0.410
288
83 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.188
288
54 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.203
288
127 of 138
rush: success rate
0.492
288
132 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.887
288
59 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.055
288
19 of 138
pass: success rate
0.344
288
24 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.563
288
73 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.430
288
55 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.368
288
128 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.459
288
135 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.129
288
12 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
288
74 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.346
288
16 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.160
288
67 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.073
288
22 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.087
288
125 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.500
288
111 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs