Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UVA wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
DUKE
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
10.2 (34th, offence 29th, defence 42nd)
Returning production
17% (pass 4%, rush 43%, receiving 20%)
UVA
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
14.4 (21st, offence 29th, defence 20th)
Returning production
10% (pass 1%, rush 21%, receiving 9%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
DUKE
UVA
pass rate, all downs
39%124th
43%110th
pass rate, standard downs
33%119th
37%105th
pass rate, 1st down
28%132nd
42%82nd
no-huddle share
11%119th
8%127th
pass rate, passing downs
53%119th
59%91st
pass rate, red zone
44%39th
37%77th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.912th
30.630th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
DUKE offence
DUKE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.295
280
24 of 138
success rate
0.446
280
63 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.327
280
28 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.234
280
30 of 138
rush: success rate
0.423
280
91 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.144
280
14 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.427
280
27 of 138
pass: success rate
0.476
280
46 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.659
280
44 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.492
280
69 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.337
280
55 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.323
280
37 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.161
280
60 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
280
64 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.677
280
26 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
280
6 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.043
280
4 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.046
280
53 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.900
280
110 of 138
UVA offence
UVA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.284
294
29 of 138
success rate
0.476
294
44 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.215
294
75 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.150
294
59 of 138
rush: success rate
0.467
294
54 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.908
294
84 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.536
294
14 of 138
pass: success rate
0.521
294
20 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.584
294
61 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.550
294
27 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.257
294
111 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.370
294
31 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
294
32 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.870
294
10 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.655
294
27 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.105
294
19 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.078
294
48 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.027
294
10 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
294
117 of 138
DUKE defence
DUKE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.064
235
27 of 138
success rate
0.353
235
32 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.071
235
20 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.205
235
10 of 138
rush: success rate
0.323
235
21 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.439
235
3 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.027
235
36 of 138
pass: success rate
0.374
235
47 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.455
235
49 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.444
235
64 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.183
235
3 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.623
235
47 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.172
235
40 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
235
58 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.588
235
22 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
235
99 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.106
235
81 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.077
235
108 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.700
235
104 of 138
UVA defence
UVA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.144
243
9 of 138
success rate
0.333
243
19 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.955
243
4 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.043
243
41 of 138
rush: success rate
0.375
243
51 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.651
243
10 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.145
243
5 of 138
pass: success rate
0.303
243
10 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.397
243
32 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.399
243
29 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.222
243
21 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.891
243
74 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
243
60 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
243
56 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.143
243
56 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.198
243
116 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.099
243
69 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
243
133 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.200
243
94 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs