Betting
Spread
DUKE favouredMarket UVA −6.5Ours UVA −12.5
UVA favouredgap 6 toward UVA
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| DUKE away | +6.5 | 23.5 | +225 | 29.5% | — |
| UVA home | -6.5 | 30.0 | -278 | 70.5% | — |
| Total | 53.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| DUKE away | +12.5 | 20.5 | 21.4% | +6.0 |
| UVA home | -12.5 | 33.0 | 78.6% | -6.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
Nothing to show for this game.
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | DUKE | UVA |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +0.855th | +3.437th |
| Defence (cards) | -0.574th | +2.319th |
| Card team rating | +0.360th | +5.733rd |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +10.234th | +14.421st |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.439th | +0.341st |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.735th | +0.830th |
| Card line | UVA -12.5 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 17% | 10% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Walker Eget DUKE78 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.357
Completion62.4%
TD–INT6-1
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game192
Rush yards, median game-1
Games this season4
Team throws per game26.8
Beau Pribula UVA82 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.465
Completion76.7%
TD–INT11-1
Pass attempts, median game21
Pass yards, median game180
Rush yards, median game12
Games this season4
Team throws per game27.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| DUKE away | 4-0 | 100% | +11.1 | 2-2 | -6.8 |
| UVA home | 3-1 | 75% | +7.1 | 2-2 | +0.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| DUKE | all | covered 5 straight — next game covered 48.8% of the time (3066 cases) |
| DUKE | all | won 6 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| DUKE | day | covered 5 straight — next game covered 48.8% of the time (3066 cases) |
| DUKE | day | won 6 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| DUKE | division | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| DUKE | away division | covered 6 straight — next game covered 47.5% of the time (1464 cases) |
| DUKE | away division | won 7 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| UVA | day | gone under 10 straight — next game went over 61.8% of the time (55 cases) |
| UVA | division | gone under 8 straight — next game went over 53.9% of the time (323 cases) |
| UVA | home division | gone under 4 straight — next game went over 51.1% of the time (6939 cases) |
Streak picker (spread): bets UVA — DUKE has covered 6 straight as away division.
Streak picker (total): bets the over — UVA has gone under 10 straight as day.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Scott Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| DUKE | Q. Johnson WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 17 | Johnson is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he will be out of the lineup against Stanford on Saturday. |
| DUKE | L. Gardner QB | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 16 | Gardner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is unlikely to play on Saturday against the Stanford. |
| UVA | T. Ward WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Ward is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face against Florida State on Saturday. |
| UVA | P. Lewis RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Lewis is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Florida State on Saturday. |
| UVA | D. Newton-Short WR | questionable Hamstring | Sun, Sep 27 | Newton-Short is managing with a hamstring injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Florida State on Saturday, October 3th. |
| UVA | T. Hamann K | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Hamann is sidelined by a undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will face Florida State on Saturday, October 3th. |
| UVA | J. Stevens RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Stevens is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Florida State on Saturday, October 3th. |
| UVA | J. Hammond DL | out Undisclosed | Tue, Sep 15 | Jason is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period. |