Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). CAL wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
WAKE
Games
4
Plays per game
65.8
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
3.7 (57th, offence 50th, defence 63rd)
Returning production
14% (pass 23%, rush 5%, receiving 13%)
CAL
Games
4
Plays per game
69.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-3.2 (81st, offence 93rd, defence 69th)
Returning production
58% (pass 89%, rush 0%, receiving 43%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WAKE
CAL
pass rate, all downs
53%35th
57%13th
pass rate, standard downs
43%55th
47%29th
pass rate, 1st down
46%47th
47%38th
no-huddle share
66%66th
35%95th
pass rate, passing downs
74%21st
78%8th
pass rate, red zone
34%89th
52%15th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.888th
27.987th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WAKE offence
WAKE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.280
263
31 of 138
success rate
0.452
263
58 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
263
36 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.139
263
66 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
263
58 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.851
263
103 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.400
263
29 of 138
pass: success rate
0.433
263
74 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.752
263
26 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.483
263
81 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.386
263
23 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.138
263
66 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.146
263
43 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.550
263
129 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.731
263
79 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
263
41 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.087
263
70 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
263
29 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.000
263
46 of 138
CAL offence
CAL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.007
278
120 of 138
success rate
0.403
278
102 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.193
278
88 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.056
278
123 of 138
rush: success rate
0.376
278
119 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.763
278
124 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.131
278
98 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
278
77 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.474
278
92 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.459
278
101 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.290
278
91 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.819
278
108 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.205
278
109 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
278
102 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.720
278
127 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.169
278
107 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
278
83 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.076
278
120 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.700
278
22 of 138
WAKE defence
WAKE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.160
297
110 of 138
success rate
0.468
297
127 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.054
297
17 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.049
297
77 of 138
rush: success rate
0.412
297
78 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.871
297
49 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.252
297
98 of 138
pass: success rate
0.519
297
136 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.098
297
2 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.511
297
122 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.346
297
119 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.865
297
70 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.213
297
93 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
297
60 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.385
297
68 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
297
22 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.094
297
60 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.034
297
8 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.500
297
112 of 138
CAL defence
CAL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.014
268
56 of 138
success rate
0.369
268
49 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.341
268
109 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.217
268
129 of 138
rush: success rate
0.420
268
84 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.122
268
123 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.092
268
13 of 138
pass: success rate
0.320
268
15 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.644
268
100 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.431
268
56 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.255
268
45 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.160
268
110 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
268
18 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
268
130 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.615
268
25 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
268
27 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
268
5 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.067
268
89 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.000
268
12 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs