Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). DUKE wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
DUKE
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
10.2 (34th, offence 29th, defence 42nd)
Returning production
17% (pass 4%, rush 43%, receiving 20%)
GT
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
-0.1 (69th, offence 66th, defence 76th)
Returning production
13% (pass 0%, rush 35%, receiving 11%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
DUKE
GT
pass rate, all downs
39%124th
53%34th
pass rate, standard downs
33%119th
44%47th
pass rate, 1st down
28%132nd
42%78th
no-huddle share
11%119th
33%98th
pass rate, passing downs
53%119th
71%33rd
pass rate, red zone
44%39th
48%26th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.912th
28.875th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
DUKE offence
DUKE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.295
280
24 of 138
success rate
0.446
280
63 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.327
280
28 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.234
280
30 of 138
rush: success rate
0.423
280
91 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.144
280
14 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.427
280
27 of 138
pass: success rate
0.476
280
46 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.659
280
44 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.492
280
69 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.337
280
55 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.323
280
37 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.161
280
60 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
280
64 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.677
280
26 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
280
6 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.043
280
4 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.046
280
53 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.900
280
110 of 138
GT offence
GT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.141
260
76 of 138
success rate
0.442
260
68 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.221
260
71 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
260
73 of 138
rush: success rate
0.452
260
67 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.885
260
87 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.191
260
84 of 138
pass: success rate
0.443
260
68 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.513
260
78 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
260
60 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
260
71 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.074
260
76 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.202
260
106 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
260
93 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.393
260
101 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
260
95 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
260
105 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
260
77 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.600
260
66 of 138
DUKE defence
DUKE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.064
235
27 of 138
success rate
0.353
235
32 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.071
235
20 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.205
235
10 of 138
rush: success rate
0.323
235
21 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.439
235
3 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.027
235
36 of 138
pass: success rate
0.374
235
47 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.455
235
49 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.444
235
64 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.183
235
3 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.623
235
47 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.172
235
40 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
235
58 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.588
235
22 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
235
99 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.106
235
81 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.077
235
108 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.700
235
104 of 138
GT defence
GT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.155
281
105 of 138
success rate
0.413
281
85 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.267
281
87 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.082
281
91 of 138
rush: success rate
0.447
281
107 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.865
281
45 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.343
281
121 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
281
41 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.089
281
138 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.447
281
68 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
281
115 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.906
281
80 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.171
281
38 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
281
54 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.654
281
91 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.160
281
68 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.121
281
110 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.039
281
15 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.400
281
40 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs