Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LOU wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
FSU
Games
4
Plays per game
62.2
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
5.7 (53rd, offence 35th, defence 74th)
Returning production
40% (pass 13%, rush 28%, receiving 65%)
LOU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.5
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
9.9 (36th, offence 19th, defence 66th)
Returning production
35% (pass 0%, rush 85%, receiving 18%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
FSU
LOU
pass rate, all downs
44%102nd
46%86th
pass rate, standard downs
35%113th
39%91st
pass rate, 1st down
35%112th
41%87th
no-huddle share
69%61st
31%101st
pass rate, passing downs
64%60th
68%51st
pass rate, red zone
35%83rd
36%82nd
seconds per play (own drives)
29.069th
28.083rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
FSU offence
FSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.247
249
41 of 138
success rate
0.434
249
80 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.526
249
2 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.224
249
34 of 138
rush: success rate
0.442
249
79 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.131
249
16 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.367
249
42 of 138
pass: success rate
0.423
249
83 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.061
249
2 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
249
107 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.392
249
21 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.196
249
60 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
249
50 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
249
126 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.885
249
18 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.145
249
75 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.080
249
52 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
249
93 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.300
249
55 of 138
LOU offence
LOU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.344
270
12 of 138
success rate
0.500
270
24 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.353
270
23 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.203
270
39 of 138
rush: success rate
0.486
270
35 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.034
270
43 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.487
270
18 of 138
pass: success rate
0.516
270
23 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.663
270
43 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.563
270
16 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.324
270
64 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.809
270
111 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.194
270
96 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.722
270
84 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.393
270
40 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.141
270
70 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
270
114 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.030
270
13 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
270
82 of 138
FSU defence
FSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.219
276
125 of 138
success rate
0.435
276
102 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.350
276
111 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.134
276
111 of 138
rush: success rate
0.414
276
79 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.959
276
83 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.325
276
116 of 138
pass: success rate
0.458
276
111 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.654
276
102 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
276
109 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.316
276
103 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.010
276
95 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
276
47 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.929
276
135 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.524
276
80 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.156
276
58 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
276
75 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
276
49 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
276
95 of 138
LOU defence
LOU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.106
286
89 of 138
success rate
0.402
286
75 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.238
286
76 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.015
286
53 of 138
rush: success rate
0.430
286
92 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.710
286
15 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.378
286
124 of 138
pass: success rate
0.381
286
58 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.964
286
136 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.455
286
76 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.274
286
61 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.021
286
98 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.121
286
6 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.517
286
11 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.615
286
87 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
286
33 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.073
286
23 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
286
74 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.100
286
52 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs