Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). WAKE wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
STAN
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-8.4 (102nd, offence 98th, defence 98th)
Returning production
21% (pass -1%, rush 135%, receiving 31%)
WAKE
Games
4
Plays per game
65.8
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
3.7 (57th, offence 50th, defence 63rd)
Returning production
14% (pass 23%, rush 5%, receiving 13%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
STAN
WAKE
pass rate, all downs
57%12th
53%35th
pass rate, standard downs
48%24th
43%55th
pass rate, 1st down
45%53rd
46%47th
no-huddle share
61%70th
66%66th
pass rate, passing downs
77%13th
74%21st
pass rate, red zone
54%10th
34%89th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4112th
27.888th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
STAN offence
STAN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.130
272
80 of 138
success rate
0.393
272
112 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.249
272
61 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.002
272
114 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
272
105 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.796
272
113 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.230
272
74 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
272
105 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.602
272
56 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.464
272
96 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.253
272
114 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.760
272
115 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.212
272
117 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
272
56 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.261
272
109 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
272
40 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.074
272
43 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.051
272
63 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.600
272
13 of 138
WAKE offence
WAKE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.280
263
31 of 138
success rate
0.452
263
58 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
263
36 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.139
263
66 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
263
58 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.851
263
103 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.400
263
29 of 138
pass: success rate
0.433
263
74 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.752
263
26 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.483
263
81 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.386
263
23 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.138
263
66 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.146
263
43 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.550
263
129 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.731
263
79 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
263
41 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.087
263
70 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
263
29 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.000
263
46 of 138
STAN defence
STAN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.281
288
133 of 138
success rate
0.458
288
122 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.377
288
118 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.158
288
119 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
288
112 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.128
288
124 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.456
288
132 of 138
pass: success rate
0.466
288
116 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.592
288
86 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
288
107 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.383
288
132 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.222
288
116 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
288
19 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.812
288
111 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.000
288
132 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
288
20 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.080
288
36 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
288
40 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
288
68 of 138
WAKE defence
WAKE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.160
297
110 of 138
success rate
0.468
297
127 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.054
297
17 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.049
297
77 of 138
rush: success rate
0.412
297
78 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.871
297
49 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.252
297
98 of 138
pass: success rate
0.519
297
136 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.098
297
2 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.511
297
122 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.346
297
119 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.865
297
70 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.213
297
93 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
297
60 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.385
297
68 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
297
22 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.094
297
60 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.034
297
8 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.500
297
112 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs