Line has moved -1.5 since we first saw it (WAKE -12.5 to WAKE -14).
Betting
Spread
STAN favouredMarket WAKE −14Ours WAKE −11.6
WAKE favouredgap 2.4 toward STAN
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| STAN away | +14.0 | 19.8 | +440 | 17.8% | 18% |
| WAKE home | -14.0 | 33.8 | -600 | 82.2% | 84% |
| Total | 53.5 | |
WAKE -12.5 when first seen, now WAKE -14 · total 54.5 then, 53.5 now. Over -110 / under -110 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 06:00 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| STAN away | +11.5 | 20.9 | 22.1% | -2.5 |
| WAKE home | -11.5 | 32.6 | 77.9% | +2.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| STAN away | +16.5 | 18.3 | 13.0% | +2.5 |
| WAKE home | -16.5 | 34.7 | 87.0% | -2.5 |
| Total | 53.0 | | | -0.5 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | STAN | WAKE |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -3.598th | +0.163rd |
| Defence (cards) | -0.469th | +0.944th |
| Card team rating | -3.991st | +1.055th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -8.4102nd | +3.757th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.492nd | +0.345th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.6100th | +0.453rd |
| Card line | WAKE -11.6 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 21% | 14% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Davis Warren STAN74 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.282
Completion58.0%
TD–INT5-0
Pass attempts, median game35
Pass yards, median game262
Rush yards, median game-1
Games this season4
Team throws per game37.0
Gio Lopez WAKE81 ▲2 overall · Junior
Points added per play—
Completion—
TD–INT—
Pass attempts, median game—
Pass yards, median game—
Rush yards, median game—
Games this season0
Team throws per game31.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| STAN away | 2-2 | 50% | -4.4 | 3-1 | +5.8 |
| WAKE home | 2-2 | 50% | +4.0 | 2-2 | +5.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| STAN | away | lost 12 straight — next game covered 49.5% of the time (2595 cases) |
| STAN | away underdog | lost 12 straight — next game covered 49.5% of the time (2595 cases) |
| STAN | away division | lost 8 straight — next game covered 51.1% of the time (4270 cases) |
| WAKE | favourite | won 8 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (5637 cases) |
| WAKE | favourite | gone over 5 straight — next game went over 46.2% of the time (2484 cases) |
| WAKE | favourite of 7+ | won 16 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| WAKE | home division | covered 4 straight — next game covered 49.4% of the time (6312 cases) |
| WAKE | home favourite | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| STAN | N. Prongos OG | probable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Prongos is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up against the Georgia Tech on Saturday, September 26th. |
| STAN | J. Galvan LB | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 19 | Galvan is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return. |
| STAN | L. Bironas K | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Bironas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is anticipated to play against Duke on September 19th. |
| STAN | D. Sharper WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Sharper is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Duke on September 19th. |
| STAN | C. Shaw WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Shaw is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Duke on September 19th. |
| STAN | A. Kilstrom OG | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Kilstrom is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Duke on September 19th. |
| WAKE | G. Lopez QB | questionable Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Lopez is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will be available against the Louisville on Saturday. |
| WAKE | N. Carr WR | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 16 | Carr is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Miami on Saturday, September 19th. |