Line has moved +1.0 since we first saw it (ND -21.5 to ND -22.5).
Betting
Spread
ND favouredMarket ND −22.5Ours ND −23.5
UNC favouredgap 1 toward ND
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| ND away | -22.5 | 34.5 | -1800 | 91.2% | 94% |
| UNC home | +22.5 | 12.0 | +1000 | 8.8% | 7% |
| Total | 46.5 | |
ND -21.5 when first seen, now ND -22.5 · total 50.5 then, 46.5 now. Over -110 / under -110 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 05:30 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ND away | -23.5 | 35.0 | 93.7% | -1.0 |
| UNC home | +23.5 | 11.5 | 6.3% | +1.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ND away | -30.0 | 39.5 | 99.0% | -7.5 |
| UNC home | +30.0 | 9.4 | 1.0% | +7.5 |
| Total | 49.0 | | | +2.5 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | ND | UNC |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +10.74th | +0.460th |
| Defence (cards) | +4.52nd | +0.945th |
| Card team rating | +15.22nd | +1.253rd |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +28.13rd | +3.060th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +1.52nd | -0.171st |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +2.22nd | +0.066th |
| Card line | UNC +23.5 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 51% | 28% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
CJ Carr ND93 ▲1 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.595
Completion70.5%
TD–INT9-1
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game238
Rush yards, median game5
Games this season4
Team throws per game28.0
Billy Edwards Jr. UNC78 ▲1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.155
Completion56.4%
TD–INT3-1
Pass attempts, median game28
Pass yards, median game232
Rush yards, median game-3
Games this season3
Team throws per game28.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| ND away | 3-1 | 75% | +3.6 | 2-2 | -1.8 |
| UNC home | 1-2 | 33% | +1.0 | 1-2 | -11.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| ND | all | won 14 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| ND | favourite | won 14 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| ND | non-division | won 14 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| ND | day | won 12 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| ND | favourite of 7+ | won 22 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| ND | away | won 5 straight — next game covered 50.1% of the time (12375 cases) |
| ND | away favourite | won 5 straight — next game covered 50.1% of the time (12375 cases) |
| ND | away non-division | won 5 straight — next game covered 50.1% of the time (12375 cases) |
| UNC | home non-division | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
| UNC | home underdog | lost 9 straight — next game covered 51.1% of the time (4270 cases) |
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Kenan Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Quincy Porter ND — out (Coach Marcus Freeman, 2026-09-29)
Wide receiver will undergo season-ending surgery for a knee issue.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| ND | Q. Porter WR | out Knee | Mon, Sep 28 | Porter is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season. |
| ND | B. Hebert QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Hebert is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Boilermakers on Friday, September 25th. |
| UNC | J. Washington TE | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 19 | Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is unlikely to suit up against Clemson on Saturday, September 19th. |
| UNC | M. Abou Jaoude DL | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 19 | Abou-Jaoude is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to suit up against Clemson on Saturday, September 19th. |
| UNC | R. Verhoff K | out Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 18 | Verhoff is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face Clemson on Saturday, September 19th. |
| UNC | K. Chapman WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 17 | Chapman is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face againt Clemson on Saturday. |
| UNC | C. Sadler WR | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 16 | Sadler is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely to play against the Clemson on Saturday. |
| UNC | C. Warren WR | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 16 | Carnell is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to play against Clemson on Saturday, September 19th. |
| UNC | J. Warren TE | out Undisclosed | Fri, Aug 21 | Warren is managing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |
Reported, not official: college has no injury report. The first list is the news reader's, with its sources; the table is Covers.com's tags.