Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). SMU wins about 98% of the time at a number like ours.
BC
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-4.6 (90th, offence 106th, defence 65th)
Returning production
16% (pass 8%, rush -62%, receiving 23%)
SMU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.5
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
13.0 (26th, offence 16th, defence 41st)
Returning production
57% (pass 97%, rush 1%, receiving 37%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BC
SMU
pass rate, all downs
46%87th
53%33rd
pass rate, standard downs
32%124th
43%58th
pass rate, 1st down
30%125th
47%42nd
no-huddle share
51%81st
48%84th
pass rate, passing downs
74%22nd
80%4th
pass rate, red zone
36%80th
41%54th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.146th
26.4116th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BC offence
BC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.032
262
127 of 138
success rate
0.389
262
115 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.164
262
101 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.006
262
115 of 138
rush: success rate
0.439
262
81 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.935
262
79 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.063
262
110 of 138
pass: success rate
0.357
262
126 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.533
262
74 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.460
262
99 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.244
262
116 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.847
262
103 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.252
262
134 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.688
262
98 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.091
262
118 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
262
120 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
262
112 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
262
107 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
262
58 of 138
SMU offence
SMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.251
282
40 of 138
success rate
0.518
282
9 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.250
282
59 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.027
282
121 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
282
49 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.646
282
134 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.603
282
7 of 138
pass: success rate
0.573
282
7 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.710
282
33 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
282
21 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.405
282
15 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.039
282
83 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.164
282
62 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.652
282
109 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.903
282
71 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.121
282
37 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.078
282
47 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
282
46 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.600
282
112 of 138
BC defence
BC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.002
276
51 of 138
success rate
0.395
276
71 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.237
276
75 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.007
276
61 of 138
rush: success rate
0.390
276
59 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.030
276
101 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.155
276
76 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
276
92 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.492
276
56 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.398
276
27 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.388
276
133 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.016
276
96 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.195
276
72 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
276
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.391
276
69 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.174
276
83 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.120
276
107 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
276
48 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.700
276
29 of 138
SMU defence
SMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
255
64 of 138
success rate
0.361
255
41 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.317
255
103 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.030
255
71 of 138
rush: success rate
0.426
255
89 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.065
255
109 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.038
255
40 of 138
pass: success rate
0.299
255
7 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.711
255
112 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.434
255
57 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
255
11 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.702
255
56 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.213
255
92 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.389
255
2 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.950
255
109 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
255
122 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
255
124 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
255
76 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.600
255
102 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs