Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). VT wins about 81% of the time at a number like ours.
VT
Games
4
Plays per game
79.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
12.3 (28th, offence 27th, defence 30th)
Returning production
37% (pass 0%, rush 31%, receiving 54%)
BC
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-4.6 (90th, offence 106th, defence 65th)
Returning production
16% (pass 8%, rush -62%, receiving 23%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
VT
BC
pass rate, all downs
51%50th
46%87th
pass rate, standard downs
43%54th
32%124th
pass rate, 1st down
42%75th
30%125th
no-huddle share
40%90th
51%81st
pass rate, passing downs
70%36th
74%22nd
pass rate, red zone
42%53rd
36%80th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.1120th
30.146th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
VT offence
VT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.241
316
42 of 138
success rate
0.484
316
36 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
316
82 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.149
316
60 of 138
rush: success rate
0.503
316
23 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
316
69 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.357
316
46 of 138
pass: success rate
0.471
316
51 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.475
316
91 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.504
316
57 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.427
316
9 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.994
316
88 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.200
316
103 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
316
73 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.567
316
35 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.111
316
25 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.089
316
76 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.022
316
5 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.400
316
123 of 138
BC offence
BC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.032
262
127 of 138
success rate
0.389
262
115 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.164
262
101 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.006
262
115 of 138
rush: success rate
0.439
262
81 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.935
262
79 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.063
262
110 of 138
pass: success rate
0.357
262
126 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.533
262
74 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.460
262
99 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.244
262
116 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.847
262
103 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.252
262
134 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.688
262
98 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.091
262
118 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
262
120 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
262
112 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
262
107 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
262
58 of 138
VT defence
VT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.030
236
38 of 138
success rate
0.331
236
18 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.309
236
99 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.147
236
17 of 138
rush: success rate
0.269
236
6 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.306
236
135 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.142
236
73 of 138
pass: success rate
0.391
236
70 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.340
236
19 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.413
236
39 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.204
236
12 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
0.986
236
1 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.403
236
138 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
236
18 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.522
236
19 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.267
236
138 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.220
236
138 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.047
236
35 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.100
236
71 of 138
BC defence
BC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.002
276
51 of 138
success rate
0.395
276
71 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.237
276
75 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.007
276
61 of 138
rush: success rate
0.390
276
59 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.030
276
101 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.155
276
76 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
276
92 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.492
276
56 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.398
276
27 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.388
276
133 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.016
276
96 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.195
276
72 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
276
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.391
276
69 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.174
276
83 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.120
276
107 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
276
48 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.700
276
29 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs