Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). CAL wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
CLEM
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
4.9 (54th, offence 91st, defence 24th)
Returning production
41% (pass 14%, rush -38%, receiving 71%)
CAL
Games
4
Plays per game
69.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-3.2 (81st, offence 93rd, defence 69th)
Returning production
58% (pass 89%, rush 0%, receiving 43%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CLEM
CAL
pass rate, all downs
47%73rd
57%13th
pass rate, standard downs
43%56th
47%29th
pass rate, 1st down
45%51st
47%38th
no-huddle share
96%13th
35%95th
pass rate, passing downs
55%111th
78%8th
pass rate, red zone
33%91st
52%15th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.2100th
27.987th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CLEM offence
CLEM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.027
260
125 of 138
success rate
0.342
260
132 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.175
260
94 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.093
260
82 of 138
rush: success rate
0.368
260
120 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.020
260
49 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.001
260
124 of 138
pass: success rate
0.328
260
131 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.400
260
114 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.405
260
129 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
260
125 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.764
260
114 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.211
260
114 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
260
35 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.095
260
117 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
260
127 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.146
260
136 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
260
39 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
260
71 of 138
CAL offence
CAL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.007
278
120 of 138
success rate
0.403
278
102 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.193
278
88 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.056
278
123 of 138
rush: success rate
0.376
278
119 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.763
278
124 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.131
278
98 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
278
77 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.474
278
92 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.459
278
101 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.290
278
91 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.819
278
108 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.205
278
109 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
278
102 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.720
278
127 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.169
278
107 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
278
83 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.076
278
120 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.700
278
22 of 138
CLEM defence
CLEM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.017
288
58 of 138
success rate
0.410
288
83 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.188
288
54 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.203
288
127 of 138
rush: success rate
0.492
288
132 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.887
288
59 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.055
288
19 of 138
pass: success rate
0.344
288
24 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.563
288
73 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.430
288
55 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.368
288
128 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.459
288
135 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.129
288
12 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
288
74 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.346
288
16 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.160
288
67 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.073
288
22 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.087
288
125 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.500
288
111 of 138
CAL defence
CAL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.014
268
56 of 138
success rate
0.369
268
49 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.341
268
109 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.217
268
129 of 138
rush: success rate
0.420
268
84 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.122
268
123 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.092
268
13 of 138
pass: success rate
0.320
268
15 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.644
268
100 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.431
268
56 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.255
268
45 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.160
268
110 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
268
18 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
268
130 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.615
268
25 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
268
27 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
268
5 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.067
268
89 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.000
268
12 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs