Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). DUKE wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
STAN
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-8.4 (102nd, offence 98th, defence 98th)
Returning production
21% (pass -1%, rush 135%, receiving 31%)
DUKE
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
10.2 (34th, offence 29th, defence 42nd)
Returning production
17% (pass 4%, rush 43%, receiving 20%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
STAN
DUKE
pass rate, all downs
57%12th
39%124th
pass rate, standard downs
48%24th
33%119th
pass rate, 1st down
45%53rd
28%132nd
no-huddle share
61%70th
11%119th
pass rate, passing downs
77%13th
53%119th
pass rate, red zone
54%10th
44%39th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4112th
31.912th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
STAN offence
STAN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.130
272
80 of 138
success rate
0.393
272
112 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.249
272
61 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.002
272
114 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
272
105 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.796
272
113 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.230
272
74 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
272
105 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.602
272
56 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.464
272
96 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.253
272
114 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.760
272
115 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.212
272
117 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
272
56 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.261
272
109 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
272
40 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.074
272
43 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.051
272
63 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.600
272
13 of 138
DUKE offence
DUKE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.295
280
24 of 138
success rate
0.446
280
63 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.327
280
28 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.234
280
30 of 138
rush: success rate
0.423
280
91 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.144
280
14 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.427
280
27 of 138
pass: success rate
0.476
280
46 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.659
280
44 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.492
280
69 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.337
280
55 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.323
280
37 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.161
280
60 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
280
64 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.677
280
26 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
280
6 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.043
280
4 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.046
280
53 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.900
280
110 of 138
STAN defence
STAN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.281
288
133 of 138
success rate
0.458
288
122 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.377
288
118 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.158
288
119 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
288
112 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.128
288
124 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.456
288
132 of 138
pass: success rate
0.466
288
116 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.592
288
86 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
288
107 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.383
288
132 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.222
288
116 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
288
19 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.812
288
111 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.000
288
132 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
288
20 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.080
288
36 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
288
40 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
288
68 of 138
DUKE defence
DUKE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.064
235
27 of 138
success rate
0.353
235
32 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.071
235
20 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.205
235
10 of 138
rush: success rate
0.323
235
21 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.439
235
3 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.027
235
36 of 138
pass: success rate
0.374
235
47 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.455
235
49 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.444
235
64 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.183
235
3 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.623
235
47 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.172
235
40 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
235
58 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.588
235
22 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
235
99 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.106
235
81 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.077
235
108 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.700
235
104 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs