Betting
Spread
STAN favouredMarket DUKE −9.5Ours DUKE −10.4
DUKE favouredgap 0.9 toward DUKE
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| STAN away | +9.5 | 21.0 | +295 | 24.3% | — |
| DUKE home | -9.5 | 30.5 | -375 | 75.7% | — |
| Total | 51.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| STAN away | +10.5 | 20.5 | 25.2% | +1.0 |
| DUKE home | -10.5 | 31.0 | 74.8% | -1.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| STAN away | +16.0 | 18.9 | 14.0% | +6.5 |
| DUKE home | -16.0 | 34.6 | 86.0% | -6.5 |
| Total | 53.5 | | | +2.0 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | STAN | DUKE |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -3.598th | +0.855th |
| Defence (cards) | -0.469th | -0.574th |
| Card team rating | -3.991st | +0.360th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -8.4102nd | +10.234th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.492nd | +0.439th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.6100th | +0.735th |
| Card line | DUKE -10.4 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 21% | 17% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Davis Warren STAN74 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.282
Completion58.0%
TD–INT5-0
Pass attempts, median game35
Pass yards, median game262
Rush yards, median game-1
Games this season4
Team throws per game37.0
Walker Eget DUKE78 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.357
Completion62.4%
TD–INT6-1
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game192
Rush yards, median game-1
Games this season4
Team throws per game26.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| STAN away | 2-2 | 50% | -4.4 | 3-1 | +5.8 |
| DUKE home | 4-0 | 100% | +11.1 | 2-2 | -6.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Wallace Wade Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| STAN | N. Prongos OG | probable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Prongos is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up against the Georgia Tech on Saturday, September 26th. |
| STAN | J. Galvan LB | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 19 | Galvan is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return. |
| STAN | L. Bironas K | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Bironas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is anticipated to play against Duke on September 19th. |
| STAN | D. Sharper WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Sharper is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Duke on September 19th. |
| STAN | C. Shaw WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Shaw is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Duke on September 19th. |
| STAN | A. Kilstrom OG | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Kilstrom is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Duke on September 19th. |
| DUKE | Q. Johnson WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 17 | Johnson is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he will be out of the lineup against Stanford on Saturday. |
| DUKE | L. Gardner QB | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 16 | Gardner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is unlikely to play on Saturday against the Stanford. |