Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). SMU wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
SMU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.5
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
13.0 (26th, offence 16th, defence 41st)
Returning production
57% (pass 97%, rush 1%, receiving 37%)
LOU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.5
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
9.9 (36th, offence 19th, defence 66th)
Returning production
35% (pass 0%, rush 85%, receiving 18%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
SMU
LOU
pass rate, all downs
53%33rd
46%86th
pass rate, standard downs
43%58th
39%91st
pass rate, 1st down
47%42nd
41%87th
no-huddle share
48%84th
31%101st
pass rate, passing downs
80%4th
68%51st
pass rate, red zone
41%54th
36%82nd
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4116th
28.083rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
SMU offence
SMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.251
282
40 of 138
success rate
0.518
282
9 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.250
282
59 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.027
282
121 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
282
49 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.646
282
134 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.603
282
7 of 138
pass: success rate
0.573
282
7 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.710
282
33 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
282
21 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.405
282
15 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.039
282
83 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.164
282
62 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.652
282
109 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.903
282
71 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.121
282
37 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.078
282
47 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
282
46 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.600
282
112 of 138
LOU offence
LOU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.344
270
12 of 138
success rate
0.500
270
24 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.353
270
23 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.203
270
39 of 138
rush: success rate
0.486
270
35 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.034
270
43 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.487
270
18 of 138
pass: success rate
0.516
270
23 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.663
270
43 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.563
270
16 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.324
270
64 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.809
270
111 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.194
270
96 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.722
270
84 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.393
270
40 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.141
270
70 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
270
114 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.030
270
13 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
270
82 of 138
SMU defence
SMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
255
64 of 138
success rate
0.361
255
41 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.317
255
103 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.030
255
71 of 138
rush: success rate
0.426
255
89 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.065
255
109 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.038
255
40 of 138
pass: success rate
0.299
255
7 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.711
255
112 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.434
255
57 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
255
11 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.702
255
56 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.213
255
92 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.389
255
2 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.950
255
109 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
255
122 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
255
124 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
255
76 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.600
255
102 of 138
LOU defence
LOU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.106
286
89 of 138
success rate
0.402
286
75 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.238
286
76 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.015
286
53 of 138
rush: success rate
0.430
286
92 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.710
286
15 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.378
286
124 of 138
pass: success rate
0.381
286
58 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.964
286
136 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.455
286
76 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.274
286
61 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.021
286
98 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.121
286
6 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.517
286
11 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.615
286
87 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
286
33 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.073
286
23 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
286
74 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.100
286
52 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs