Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). AUB wins about 59% of the time at a number like ours.
AUB
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
11.4 (31st, offence 53rd, defence 16th)
Returning production
14% (pass 0%, rush 26%, receiving 9%)
MSST
Games
4
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
15.1 (18th, offence 10th, defence 47th)
Returning production
34% (pass 0%, rush 87%, receiving 28%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
AUB
MSST
pass rate, all downs
51%45th
48%70th
pass rate, standard downs
46%41st
47%34th
pass rate, 1st down
46%48th
49%24th
no-huddle share
96%11th
85%33rd
pass rate, passing downs
63%68th
51%127th
pass rate, red zone
37%76th
46%33rd
seconds per play (own drives)
22.3138th
24.6131st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
AUB offence
AUB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
285
84 of 138
success rate
0.428
285
84 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.268
285
52 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.187
285
42 of 138
rush: success rate
0.464
285
56 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.989
285
60 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.142
285
95 of 138
pass: success rate
0.401
285
98 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.583
285
62 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
285
106 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.378
285
27 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.278
285
45 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
285
49 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.867
285
11 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.120
285
58 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.151
285
81 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.098
285
93 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
285
66 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.600
285
38 of 138
MSST offence
MSST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.383
289
9 of 138
success rate
0.512
289
16 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.320
289
31 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.327
289
10 of 138
rush: success rate
0.544
289
8 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.017
289
51 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.531
289
15 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
289
30 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.686
289
36 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.543
289
32 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.432
289
8 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.344
289
34 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.201
289
104 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.824
289
26 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.645
289
28 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.119
289
35 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
289
26 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.052
289
65 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.800
289
47 of 138
AUB defence
AUB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.009
317
46 of 138
success rate
0.375
317
58 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.214
317
65 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.018
317
50 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
317
38 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.924
317
72 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.128
317
69 of 138
pass: success rate
0.414
317
80 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.494
317
57 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.417
317
44 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.277
317
65 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.569
317
39 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.185
317
53 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.682
317
53 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
317
78 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.155
317
56 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
317
74 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
317
47 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
317
79 of 138
MSST defence
MSST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.018
292
59 of 138
success rate
0.373
292
55 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
292
39 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
292
55 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
292
39 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.720
292
17 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.067
292
50 of 138
pass: success rate
0.388
292
64 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.441
292
43 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.437
292
59 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.221
292
20 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.911
292
82 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.158
292
30 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
292
24 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.167
292
58 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
292
97 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.082
292
41 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
292
130 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
292
66 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs