Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). COLO wins about 52% of the time at a number like ours.
UCF
Games
4
Plays per game
56.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
8.7 (40th, offence 65th, defence 23rd)
Returning production
25% (pass 4%, rush -17%, receiving 58%)
COLO
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
-3.3 (82nd, offence 99th, defence 59th)
Returning production
14% (pass -26%, rush -37%, receiving 39%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UCF
COLO
pass rate, all downs
43%106th
50%55th
pass rate, standard downs
38%97th
47%30th
pass rate, 1st down
43%68th
53%11th
no-huddle share
73%56th
98%5th
pass rate, passing downs
55%112th
56%106th
pass rate, red zone
24%123rd
32%98th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.754th
24.9128th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UCF offence
UCF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
227
85 of 138
success rate
0.436
227
76 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.206
227
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.180
227
46 of 138
rush: success rate
0.445
227
74 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.165
227
12 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.053
227
113 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
227
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.278
227
130 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
227
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
227
87 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.052
227
80 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
227
78 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
227
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.769
227
21 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
227
65 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
227
92 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.040
227
34 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.200
227
136 of 138
COLO offence
COLO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.059
294
104 of 138
success rate
0.398
294
110 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.202
294
85 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.019
294
119 of 138
rush: success rate
0.404
294
101 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.852
294
100 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.113
294
106 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
294
104 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.606
294
54 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.439
294
119 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
294
70 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.133
294
68 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.144
294
41 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.619
294
117 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.217
294
134 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.184
294
126 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.122
294
127 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
294
85 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.100
294
14 of 138
UCF defence
UCF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.047
289
32 of 138
success rate
0.343
289
25 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.275
289
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.119
289
23 of 138
rush: success rate
0.307
289
14 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.872
289
50 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.077
289
56 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
289
60 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.595
289
87 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.400
289
31 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.248
289
39 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.291
289
13 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.241
289
114 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
289
34 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.304
289
14 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
289
82 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.111
289
92 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
289
73 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
289
81 of 138
COLO defence
COLO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.007
283
54 of 138
success rate
0.382
283
61 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.207
283
62 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.135
283
20 of 138
rush: success rate
0.410
283
75 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.675
283
12 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.225
283
94 of 138
pass: success rate
0.365
283
39 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.830
283
127 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.415
283
42 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.320
283
107 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.370
283
23 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.317
283
136 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.647
283
39 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.935
283
44 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.201
283
118 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.138
283
123 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
283
78 of 138
opponent average starting field position
67.400
283
9 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs