Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARIZ wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
ASU
Games
3
Plays per game
67.3
Drives per game
13.3
SP+
3.0 (60th, offence 73rd, defence 46th)
Returning production
16% (pass 5%, rush -5%, receiving 31%)
ARIZ
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
10.7 (33rd, offence 32nd, defence 38th)
Returning production
65% (pass 120%, rush 60%, receiving 44%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ASU
ARIZ
pass rate, all downs
49%65th
56%16th
pass rate, standard downs
44%48th
51%8th
pass rate, 1st down
50%22nd
53%14th
no-huddle share
89%24th
34%97th
pass rate, passing downs
57%102nd
68%47th
pass rate, red zone
50%21st
60%5th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.691st
29.558th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ASU offence
ASU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.058
202
105 of 138
success rate
0.416
202
97 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.396
202
18 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.018
202
110 of 138
rush: success rate
0.396
202
107 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
202
37 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
202
85 of 138
pass: success rate
0.447
202
65 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.743
202
27 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.463
202
97 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.318
202
67 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.690
202
122 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.198
202
101 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
202
50 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
202
88 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
202
96 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
202
104 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.059
202
81 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.000
202
109 of 138
ARIZ offence
ARIZ offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.213
280
56 of 138
success rate
0.500
280
22 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.151
280
106 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
280
62 of 138
rush: success rate
0.521
280
14 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.696
280
132 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.281
280
61 of 138
pass: success rate
0.493
280
33 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.510
280
80 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.536
280
35 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.419
280
11 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.534
280
17 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.118
280
12 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
280
14 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.321
280
46 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.114
280
30 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.075
280
44 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
280
30 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
280
56 of 138
ASU defence
ASU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
189
63 of 138
success rate
0.370
189
50 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.179
189
49 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.026
189
45 of 138
rush: success rate
0.394
189
62 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.838
189
34 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.096
189
60 of 138
pass: success rate
0.337
189
21 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.600
189
90 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
189
72 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.224
189
22 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.907
189
81 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.149
189
23 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.636
189
36 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.684
189
28 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
189
64 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.090
189
55 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
189
92 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.000
189
33 of 138
ARIZ defence
ARIZ defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.002
250
50 of 138
success rate
0.352
250
31 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.415
250
127 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.018
250
65 of 138
rush: success rate
0.347
250
33 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.072
250
110 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.053
250
46 of 138
pass: success rate
0.356
250
30 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.601
250
91 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.403
250
32 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.277
250
64 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.589
250
42 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.253
250
125 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
250
137 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.824
250
35 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
250
78 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.108
250
88 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.060
250
64 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.000
250
107 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs