Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UCF wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
ISU
Games
4
Plays per game
60.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
3.4 (58th, offence 86th, defence 39th)
Returning production
2% (pass 3%, rush 5%, receiving 0%)
UCF
Games
4
Plays per game
56.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
8.7 (40th, offence 65th, defence 23rd)
Returning production
25% (pass 4%, rush -17%, receiving 58%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ISU
UCF
pass rate, all downs
41%119th
43%106th
pass rate, standard downs
35%114th
38%97th
pass rate, 1st down
31%122nd
43%68th
no-huddle share
36%92nd
73%56th
pass rate, passing downs
53%117th
55%112th
pass rate, red zone
28%116th
24%123rd
seconds per play (own drives)
30.436th
29.754th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ISU offence
ISU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.117
241
87 of 138
success rate
0.382
241
119 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.334
241
25 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.105
241
76 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
241
114 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.191
241
10 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.205
241
78 of 138
pass: success rate
0.402
241
96 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.546
241
70 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
241
127 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
241
86 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.993
241
90 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.190
241
92 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.583
241
122 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.636
241
29 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.170
241
109 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.083
241
57 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.087
241
133 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.100
241
60 of 138
UCF offence
UCF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
227
85 of 138
success rate
0.436
227
76 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.206
227
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.180
227
46 of 138
rush: success rate
0.445
227
74 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.165
227
12 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.053
227
113 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
227
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.278
227
130 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
227
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
227
87 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.052
227
80 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
227
78 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
227
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.769
227
21 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
227
65 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
227
92 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.040
227
34 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.200
227
136 of 138
ISU defence
ISU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.038
243
35 of 138
success rate
0.370
243
51 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.093
243
25 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.082
243
31 of 138
rush: success rate
0.374
243
49 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.864
243
44 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.069
243
52 of 138
pass: success rate
0.362
243
34 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.439
243
41 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.467
243
85 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.158
243
1 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.576
243
40 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.198
243
75 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
243
59 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.048
243
6 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
243
86 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.128
243
115 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
243
38 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.800
243
32 of 138
UCF defence
UCF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.047
289
32 of 138
success rate
0.343
289
25 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.275
289
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.119
289
23 of 138
rush: success rate
0.307
289
14 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.872
289
50 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.077
289
56 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
289
60 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.595
289
87 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.400
289
31 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.248
289
39 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.291
289
13 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.241
289
114 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
289
34 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.304
289
14 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
289
82 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.111
289
92 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
289
73 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
289
81 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs