Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). CIN wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
COLO
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
-3.3 (82nd, offence 99th, defence 59th)
Returning production
14% (pass -26%, rush -37%, receiving 39%)
CIN
Games
4
Plays per game
67.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
9.2 (38th, offence 23rd, defence 63rd)
Returning production
8% (pass 4%, rush 4%, receiving 15%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
COLO
CIN
pass rate, all downs
50%55th
40%122nd
pass rate, passing downs
56%106th
47%131st
no-huddle share
98%5th
68%63rd
pass rate, standard downs
47%30th
37%104th
pass rate, 1st down
53%11th
40%90th
pass rate, red zone
32%98th
30%107th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.9128th
28.380th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
COLO offence
COLO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.059
294
104 of 138
success rate
0.398
294
110 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.202
294
85 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.019
294
119 of 138
rush: success rate
0.404
294
101 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.852
294
100 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.113
294
106 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
294
104 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.606
294
54 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.439
294
119 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
294
70 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.133
294
68 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.144
294
41 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.619
294
117 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.217
294
134 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.184
294
126 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.122
294
127 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
294
85 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.100
294
14 of 138
CIN offence
CIN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.363
270
11 of 138
success rate
0.496
270
27 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
270
35 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.361
270
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
270
26 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.224
270
8 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.385
270
34 of 138
pass: success rate
0.509
270
26 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.432
270
105 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.560
270
17 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.338
270
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.677
270
11 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
270
26 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
270
22 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.200
270
8 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.107
270
20 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
270
88 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.011
270
2 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.200
270
95 of 138
COLO defence
COLO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.007
283
54 of 138
success rate
0.382
283
61 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.207
283
62 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.135
283
20 of 138
rush: success rate
0.410
283
75 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.675
283
12 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.225
283
94 of 138
pass: success rate
0.365
283
39 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.830
283
127 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.415
283
42 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.320
283
107 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.370
283
23 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.317
283
136 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.647
283
39 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.935
283
44 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.201
283
118 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.138
283
123 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
283
78 of 138
opponent average starting field position
67.400
283
9 of 138
CIN defence
CIN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.102
270
88 of 138
success rate
0.415
270
87 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
270
60 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.113
270
102 of 138
rush: success rate
0.482
270
129 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.828
270
33 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.220
270
93 of 138
pass: success rate
0.378
270
51 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.565
270
75 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.462
270
80 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.318
270
105 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.217
270
115 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.179
270
44 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
270
45 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.947
270
108 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
270
74 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
270
84 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
270
54 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.500
270
126 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs