Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). OKST wins about 68% of the time at a number like ours.
TTU
Games
4
Plays per game
69.2
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
20.2 (11th, offence 11th, defence 17th)
Returning production
53% (pass 27%, rush 99%, receiving 57%)
OKST
Games
4
Plays per game
80.0
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
10.2 (34th, offence 33rd, defence 42nd)
Returning production
0% (pass 0%, rush 0%, receiving 0%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TTU
OKST
pass rate, all downs
47%82nd
48%66th
pass rate, standard downs
41%75th
46%40th
pass rate, 1st down
47%39th
45%56th
no-huddle share
57%77th
97%9th
pass rate, red zone
29%114th
46%32nd
pass rate, passing downs
60%89th
56%104th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.7107th
26.6109th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TTU offence
TTU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.272
277
32 of 138
success rate
0.505
277
21 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.154
277
104 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.242
277
27 of 138
rush: success rate
0.524
277
12 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.851
277
102 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.467
277
22 of 138
pass: success rate
0.517
277
22 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.513
277
79 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.548
277
31 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.397
277
20 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.286
277
43 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.177
277
85 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.774
277
53 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.593
277
34 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
277
119 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
277
91 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.079
277
125 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
277
83 of 138
OKST offence
OKST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.161
320
68 of 138
success rate
0.491
320
31 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.108
320
125 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.071
320
87 of 138
rush: success rate
0.472
320
48 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.731
320
127 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.333
320
50 of 138
pass: success rate
0.524
320
19 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.503
320
82 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.553
320
25 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.313
320
68 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.226
320
55 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
320
77 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.640
320
113 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.750
320
78 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.091
320
11 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.044
320
5 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.047
320
55 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.600
320
49 of 138
TTU defence
TTU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.003
278
52 of 138
success rate
0.353
278
34 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.376
278
117 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.038
278
72 of 138
rush: success rate
0.359
278
40 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.969
278
87 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.019
278
33 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
278
38 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.624
278
94 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.374
278
15 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
278
98 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.962
278
90 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.194
278
71 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
278
51 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.571
278
20 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
278
103 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
278
76 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.083
278
121 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.700
278
114 of 138
OKST defence
OKST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.030
252
37 of 138
success rate
0.373
252
56 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.158
252
44 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
252
73 of 138
rush: success rate
0.424
252
85 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.927
252
77 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.136
252
8 of 138
pass: success rate
0.301
252
9 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.639
252
96 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
252
78 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.198
252
8 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.082
252
105 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.167
252
34 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.611
252
28 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
252
48 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
252
75 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.083
252
44 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.079
252
113 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.400
252
56 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs