Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). KSU wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
KSU
Games
4
Plays per game
74.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
14.0 (23rd, offence 21st, defence 34th)
Returning production
71% (pass 100%, rush 61%, receiving 57%)
TCU
Games
4
Plays per game
69.8
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
8.2 (42nd, offence 58th, defence 28th)
Returning production
22% (pass 11%, rush 31%, receiving 29%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
KSU
TCU
pass rate, all downs
48%67th
52%41st
pass rate, standard downs
42%63rd
47%33rd
pass rate, 1st down
44%60th
46%43rd
no-huddle share
76%51st
97%10th
pass rate, passing downs
63%74th
63%72nd
pass rate, red zone
43%47th
34%88th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.168th
30.924th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
KSU offence
KSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.307
296
18 of 138
success rate
0.514
296
15 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.215
296
74 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.320
296
11 of 138
rush: success rate
0.560
296
6 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.016
296
52 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.305
296
56 of 138
pass: success rate
0.471
296
50 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.484
296
89 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.549
296
28 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.433
296
7 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.398
296
29 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
296
30 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
296
60 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.963
296
17 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.084
296
5 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
296
17 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.027
296
8 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.100
296
76 of 138
TCU offence
TCU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.174
279
64 of 138
success rate
0.462
279
51 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.240
279
62 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.030
279
104 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
279
51 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.771
279
120 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.319
279
53 of 138
pass: success rate
0.464
279
52 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.664
279
41 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.573
279
9 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.218
279
130 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.030
279
84 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.164
279
63 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
279
19 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
279
99 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
279
59 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
279
106 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.029
279
12 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.500
279
113 of 138
KSU defence
KSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.039
223
33 of 138
success rate
0.305
223
7 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.495
223
135 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.071
223
85 of 138
rush: success rate
0.341
223
32 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.443
223
138 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.119
223
10 of 138
pass: success rate
0.258
223
1 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.643
223
98 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.333
223
3 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.266
223
56 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.511
223
32 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.256
223
126 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.417
223
5 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.857
223
103 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.238
223
134 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.193
223
137 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.045
223
30 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.100
223
109 of 138
TCU defence
TCU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.121
223
14 of 138
success rate
0.368
223
47 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.925
223
1 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.286
223
3 of 138
rush: success rate
0.316
223
17 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.461
223
4 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.072
223
54 of 138
pass: success rate
0.417
223
85 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.359
223
21 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.408
223
35 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.282
223
72 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.544
223
35 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.211
223
90 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
223
15 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
223
49 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
223
94 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
223
105 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
223
77 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
223
84 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs