Betting
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| KSU away | -5.5 | — | 65.2% | — |
| TCU home | +5.5 | — | 34.8% | — |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
Nothing to show for this game.
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | KSU | TCU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +4.829th | +1.549th |
| Defence (cards) | +1.042nd | +0.261st |
| Card team rating | +5.931st | +1.749th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +14.023rd | +8.242nd |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.720th | +0.250th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.119th | +0.549th |
| Card line | TCU +5.3 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 71% | 22% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Avery Johnson KSU88 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.427
Completion66.2%
TD–INT7-2
Pass attempts, median game31
Pass yards, median game213
Rush yards, median game58
Games this season4
Team throws per game34.8
Jaden Craig TCU80 ▲1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.255
Completion68.2%
TD–INT7-3
Pass attempts, median game32
Pass yards, median game324
Rush yards, median game2
Games this season4
Team throws per game33.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| KSU away | 2-2 | 50% | +3.9 | 3-1 | +3.5 |
| TCU home | 2-2 | 50% | -1.8 | 1-3 | -10.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Amon G. Carter Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| KSU | W. Anciaux TE | out Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 28 | Anciaux suffered an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| KSU | A. Morrell TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Morrell is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will take the field against Houston on Saturday, October 10th. |
| KSU | M. Lovett WR | questionable Arm | Sun, Sep 27 | Lovett id dealing with an arm injury and it is unclear if he will play against Houston on Saturday, October 10th. |
| KSU | D. Duff QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Duff is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will take the field against Houston on Saturday, October 10th. |
| KSU | B. Barnett QB | questionable Lower Body | Sun, Sep 27 | Barnett is bothered by a lower body injury, and it remains to be seen if he will take the field against Houston on Saturday, October 10th. |
| KSU | J. Knuth QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Knuth is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Houston Saturday, October 10th. |
| KSU | J. Pastore OG | out Leg | Fri, Aug 21 | Pastore has been shut down for the remainder of the season with a lower leg injury. |
| TCU | M. Short LB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Short is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return. |
| TCU | J. Pitchford RB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Pitchford has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Cougars on Saturday. |
| TCU | K. Lemmermann K | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Lemmermann is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cougars on Saturday. |
| TCU | J. Dwyer WR | out Foot | Fri, Sep 11 | Dwyer is dealing with a foot injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |