Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BYU wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
BAY
Games
4
Plays per game
82.2
Drives per game
13.8
SP+
8.1 (43rd, offence 55th, defence 31st)
Returning production
60% (pass 78%, rush 68%, receiving 47%)
BYU
Games
3
Plays per game
62.3
Drives per game
11.3
SP+
16.3 (17th, offence 24th, defence 21st)
Returning production
79% (pass 100%, rush 97%, receiving 51%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BAY
BYU
pass rate, all downs
51%47th
37%129th
pass rate, standard downs
40%83rd
33%122nd
pass rate, 1st down
40%94th
34%115th
no-huddle share
99%1st
2%138th
pass rate, passing downs
75%17th
53%121st
pass rate, red zone
46%31st
29%113th
seconds per play (own drives)
23.3136th
32.411th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BAY offence
BAY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.092
329
98 of 138
success rate
0.401
329
104 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.263
329
55 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.055
329
90 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
329
75 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.862
329
97 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.177
329
87 of 138
pass: success rate
0.373
329
113 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.756
329
23 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
329
109 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.298
329
88 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.938
329
95 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.169
329
73 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
329
77 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.393
329
100 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
329
102 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.103
329
102 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
329
92 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
64.200
329
133 of 138
BYU offence
BYU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.448
187
1 of 138
success rate
0.599
187
1 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.157
187
103 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.479
187
1 of 138
rush: success rate
0.617
187
1 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.053
187
35 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.380
187
37 of 138
pass: success rate
0.567
187
9 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.317
187
125 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.664
187
1 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.342
187
49 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.952
187
2 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.122
187
18 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.941
187
4 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.435
187
3 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.059
187
2 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.016
187
1 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
187
44 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.400
187
102 of 138
BAY defence
BAY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.115
290
16 of 138
success rate
0.321
290
12 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.139
290
38 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.257
290
5 of 138
rush: success rate
0.280
290
8 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.970
290
88 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.025
290
25 of 138
pass: success rate
0.344
290
23 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.284
290
9 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.361
290
9 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.252
290
43 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.503
290
31 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.264
290
129 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.400
290
4 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.958
290
5 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.214
290
127 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.138
290
122 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.076
290
105 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.100
290
51 of 138
BYU defence
BYU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.061
187
28 of 138
success rate
0.369
187
48 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.182
187
52 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.069
187
34 of 138
rush: success rate
0.355
187
36 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.894
187
62 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.024
187
34 of 138
pass: success rate
0.390
187
66 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.383
187
27 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.387
187
20 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.333
187
113 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.411
187
25 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.224
187
106 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
187
95 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.750
187
97 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.171
187
80 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.091
187
57 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
187
115 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.800
187
90 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs