Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). HOU wins about 86% of the time at a number like ours.
CIN
Games
4
Plays per game
67.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
9.2 (38th, offence 23rd, defence 63rd)
Returning production
8% (pass 4%, rush 4%, receiving 15%)
HOU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
12.1 (29th, offence 15th, defence 53rd)
Returning production
81% (pass 92%, rush 523%, receiving 61%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CIN
HOU
pass rate, all downs
40%122nd
42%116th
pass rate, standard downs
37%104th
39%88th
pass rate, 1st down
40%90th
38%101st
no-huddle share
68%63rd
85%31st
pass rate, passing downs
47%131st
52%123rd
pass rate, red zone
30%107th
31%105th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.380th
28.972nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CIN offence
CIN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.363
270
11 of 138
success rate
0.496
270
27 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
270
35 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.361
270
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
270
26 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.224
270
8 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.385
270
34 of 138
pass: success rate
0.509
270
26 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.432
270
105 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.560
270
17 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.338
270
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.677
270
11 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
270
26 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
270
22 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.200
270
8 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.107
270
20 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
270
88 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.011
270
2 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.200
270
95 of 138
HOU offence
HOU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.439
280
3 of 138
success rate
0.579
280
2 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.123
280
118 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.307
280
13 of 138
rush: success rate
0.578
280
2 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.796
280
112 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.639
280
5 of 138
pass: success rate
0.593
280
3 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.580
280
63 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.581
280
7 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.569
280
1 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.904
280
3 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.099
280
5 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.857
280
13 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.129
280
11 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.100
280
15 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
280
16 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
280
45 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.300
280
129 of 138
CIN defence
CIN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.102
270
88 of 138
success rate
0.415
270
87 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
270
60 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.113
270
102 of 138
rush: success rate
0.482
270
129 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.828
270
33 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.220
270
93 of 138
pass: success rate
0.378
270
51 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.565
270
75 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.462
270
80 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.318
270
105 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.217
270
115 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.179
270
44 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
270
45 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.947
270
108 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
270
74 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
270
84 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
270
54 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.500
270
126 of 138
HOU defence
HOU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.099
246
85 of 138
success rate
0.394
246
70 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.360
246
112 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.095
246
28 of 138
rush: success rate
0.347
246
34 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.839
246
35 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.303
246
112 of 138
pass: success rate
0.443
246
106 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.651
246
101 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
246
73 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.280
246
68 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.318
246
15 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.214
246
94 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.643
246
38 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.812
246
130 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.211
246
126 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.098
246
68 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.114
246
137 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.500
246
127 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs