Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BYU wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
ASU
Games
3
Plays per game
67.3
Drives per game
13.3
SP+
3.0 (60th, offence 73rd, defence 46th)
Returning production
16% (pass 5%, rush -5%, receiving 31%)
BYU
Games
3
Plays per game
62.3
Drives per game
11.3
SP+
16.3 (17th, offence 24th, defence 21st)
Returning production
79% (pass 100%, rush 97%, receiving 51%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ASU
BYU
pass rate, all downs
49%65th
37%129th
pass rate, standard downs
44%48th
33%122nd
pass rate, 1st down
50%22nd
34%115th
no-huddle share
89%24th
2%138th
pass rate, passing downs
57%102nd
53%121st
pass rate, red zone
50%21st
29%113th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.691st
32.411th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ASU offence
ASU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.058
202
105 of 138
success rate
0.416
202
97 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.396
202
18 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.018
202
110 of 138
rush: success rate
0.396
202
107 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
202
37 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
202
85 of 138
pass: success rate
0.447
202
65 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.743
202
27 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.463
202
97 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.318
202
67 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.690
202
122 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.198
202
101 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
202
50 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
202
88 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
202
96 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
202
104 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.059
202
81 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.000
202
109 of 138
BYU offence
BYU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.448
187
1 of 138
success rate
0.599
187
1 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.157
187
103 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.479
187
1 of 138
rush: success rate
0.617
187
1 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.053
187
35 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.380
187
37 of 138
pass: success rate
0.567
187
9 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.317
187
125 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.664
187
1 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.342
187
49 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.952
187
2 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.122
187
18 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.941
187
4 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.435
187
3 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.059
187
2 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.016
187
1 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
187
44 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.400
187
102 of 138
ASU defence
ASU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
189
63 of 138
success rate
0.370
189
50 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.179
189
49 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.026
189
45 of 138
rush: success rate
0.394
189
62 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.838
189
34 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.096
189
60 of 138
pass: success rate
0.337
189
21 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.600
189
90 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
189
72 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.224
189
22 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.907
189
81 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.149
189
23 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.636
189
36 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.684
189
28 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
189
64 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.090
189
55 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
189
92 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.000
189
33 of 138
BYU defence
BYU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.061
187
28 of 138
success rate
0.369
187
48 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.182
187
52 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.069
187
34 of 138
rush: success rate
0.355
187
36 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.894
187
62 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.024
187
34 of 138
pass: success rate
0.390
187
66 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.383
187
27 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.387
187
20 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.333
187
113 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.411
187
25 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.224
187
106 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
187
95 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.750
187
97 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.171
187
80 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.091
187
57 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
187
115 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.800
187
90 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs