Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TTU wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
TTU
Games
4
Plays per game
69.2
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
20.2 (11th, offence 11th, defence 17th)
Returning production
53% (pass 27%, rush 99%, receiving 57%)
CIN
Games
4
Plays per game
67.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
9.2 (38th, offence 23rd, defence 63rd)
Returning production
8% (pass 4%, rush 4%, receiving 15%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TTU
CIN
pass rate, all downs
47%82nd
40%122nd
pass rate, standard downs
41%75th
37%104th
pass rate, 1st down
47%39th
40%90th
no-huddle share
57%77th
68%63rd
pass rate, red zone
29%114th
30%107th
pass rate, passing downs
60%89th
47%131st
seconds per play (own drives)
26.7107th
28.380th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TTU offence
TTU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.272
277
32 of 138
success rate
0.505
277
21 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.154
277
104 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.242
277
27 of 138
rush: success rate
0.524
277
12 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.851
277
102 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.467
277
22 of 138
pass: success rate
0.517
277
22 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.513
277
79 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.548
277
31 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.397
277
20 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.286
277
43 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.177
277
85 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.774
277
53 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.593
277
34 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
277
119 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
277
91 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.079
277
125 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
277
83 of 138
CIN offence
CIN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.363
270
11 of 138
success rate
0.496
270
27 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
270
35 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.361
270
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
270
26 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.224
270
8 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.385
270
34 of 138
pass: success rate
0.509
270
26 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.432
270
105 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.560
270
17 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.338
270
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.677
270
11 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
270
26 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
270
22 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.200
270
8 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.107
270
20 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
270
88 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.011
270
2 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.200
270
95 of 138
TTU defence
TTU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.003
278
52 of 138
success rate
0.353
278
34 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.376
278
117 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.038
278
72 of 138
rush: success rate
0.359
278
40 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.969
278
87 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.019
278
33 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
278
38 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.624
278
94 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.374
278
15 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
278
98 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.962
278
90 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.194
278
71 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
278
51 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.571
278
20 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
278
103 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
278
76 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.083
278
121 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.700
278
114 of 138
CIN defence
CIN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.102
270
88 of 138
success rate
0.415
270
87 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
270
60 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.113
270
102 of 138
rush: success rate
0.482
270
129 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.828
270
33 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.220
270
93 of 138
pass: success rate
0.378
270
51 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.565
270
75 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.462
270
80 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.318
270
105 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.217
270
115 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.179
270
44 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
270
45 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.947
270
108 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
270
74 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
270
84 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
270
54 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.500
270
126 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs