Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). KSU wins about 59% of the time at a number like ours.
KSU
Games
4
Plays per game
74.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
14.0 (23rd, offence 21st, defence 34th)
Returning production
71% (pass 100%, rush 61%, receiving 57%)
ASU
Games
3
Plays per game
67.3
Drives per game
13.3
SP+
3.0 (60th, offence 73rd, defence 46th)
Returning production
16% (pass 5%, rush -5%, receiving 31%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
KSU
ASU
pass rate, all downs
48%67th
49%65th
pass rate, standard downs
42%63rd
44%48th
pass rate, 1st down
44%60th
50%22nd
no-huddle share
76%51st
89%24th
pass rate, passing downs
63%74th
57%102nd
pass rate, red zone
43%47th
50%21st
seconds per play (own drives)
29.168th
27.691st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
KSU offence
KSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.307
296
18 of 138
success rate
0.514
296
15 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.215
296
74 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.320
296
11 of 138
rush: success rate
0.560
296
6 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.016
296
52 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.305
296
56 of 138
pass: success rate
0.471
296
50 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.484
296
89 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.549
296
28 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.433
296
7 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.398
296
29 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
296
30 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
296
60 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.963
296
17 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.084
296
5 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
296
17 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.027
296
8 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.100
296
76 of 138
ASU offence
ASU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.058
202
105 of 138
success rate
0.416
202
97 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.396
202
18 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.018
202
110 of 138
rush: success rate
0.396
202
107 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
202
37 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
202
85 of 138
pass: success rate
0.447
202
65 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.743
202
27 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.463
202
97 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.318
202
67 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.690
202
122 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.198
202
101 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
202
50 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
202
88 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
202
96 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
202
104 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.059
202
81 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.000
202
109 of 138
KSU defence
KSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.039
223
33 of 138
success rate
0.305
223
7 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.495
223
135 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.071
223
85 of 138
rush: success rate
0.341
223
32 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.443
223
138 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.119
223
10 of 138
pass: success rate
0.258
223
1 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.643
223
98 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.333
223
3 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.266
223
56 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.511
223
32 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.256
223
126 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.417
223
5 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.857
223
103 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.238
223
134 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.193
223
137 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.045
223
30 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.100
223
109 of 138
ASU defence
ASU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
189
63 of 138
success rate
0.370
189
50 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.179
189
49 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.026
189
45 of 138
rush: success rate
0.394
189
62 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.838
189
34 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.096
189
60 of 138
pass: success rate
0.337
189
21 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.600
189
90 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
189
72 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.224
189
22 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.907
189
81 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.149
189
23 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.636
189
36 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.684
189
28 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
189
64 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.090
189
55 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
189
92 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.000
189
33 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs