Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARIZ wins about 86% of the time at a number like ours.
ISU
Games
4
Plays per game
60.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
3.4 (58th, offence 86th, defence 39th)
Returning production
2% (pass 3%, rush 5%, receiving 0%)
ARIZ
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
10.7 (33rd, offence 32nd, defence 38th)
Returning production
65% (pass 120%, rush 60%, receiving 44%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ISU
ARIZ
pass rate, all downs
41%119th
56%16th
pass rate, standard downs
35%114th
51%8th
pass rate, 1st down
31%122nd
53%14th
no-huddle share
36%92nd
34%97th
pass rate, passing downs
53%117th
68%47th
pass rate, red zone
28%116th
60%5th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.436th
29.558th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ISU offence
ISU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.117
241
87 of 138
success rate
0.382
241
119 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.334
241
25 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.105
241
76 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
241
114 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.191
241
10 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.205
241
78 of 138
pass: success rate
0.402
241
96 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.546
241
70 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
241
127 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
241
86 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.993
241
90 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.190
241
92 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.583
241
122 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.636
241
29 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.170
241
109 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.083
241
57 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.087
241
133 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.100
241
60 of 138
ARIZ offence
ARIZ offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.213
280
56 of 138
success rate
0.500
280
22 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.151
280
106 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
280
62 of 138
rush: success rate
0.521
280
14 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.696
280
132 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.281
280
61 of 138
pass: success rate
0.493
280
33 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.510
280
80 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.536
280
35 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.419
280
11 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.534
280
17 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.118
280
12 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
280
14 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.321
280
46 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.114
280
30 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.075
280
44 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
280
30 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
280
56 of 138
ISU defence
ISU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.038
243
35 of 138
success rate
0.370
243
51 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.093
243
25 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.082
243
31 of 138
rush: success rate
0.374
243
49 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.864
243
44 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.069
243
52 of 138
pass: success rate
0.362
243
34 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.439
243
41 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.467
243
85 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.158
243
1 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.576
243
40 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.198
243
75 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
243
59 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.048
243
6 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
243
86 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.128
243
115 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
243
38 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.800
243
32 of 138
ARIZ defence
ARIZ defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.002
250
50 of 138
success rate
0.352
250
31 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.415
250
127 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.018
250
65 of 138
rush: success rate
0.347
250
33 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.072
250
110 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.053
250
46 of 138
pass: success rate
0.356
250
30 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.601
250
91 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.403
250
32 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.277
250
64 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.589
250
42 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.253
250
125 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
250
137 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.824
250
35 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
250
78 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.108
250
88 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.060
250
64 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.000
250
107 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs