Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). HOU wins about 48% of the time at a number like ours.
HOU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
12.1 (29th, offence 15th, defence 53rd)
Returning production
81% (pass 92%, rush 523%, receiving 61%)
UTAH
Games
4
Plays per game
68.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
21.5 (9th, offence 13th, defence 11th)
Returning production
68% (pass 97%, rush 83%, receiving 29%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
HOU
UTAH
pass rate, all downs
42%116th
45%94th
pass rate, standard downs
39%88th
42%70th
pass rate, 1st down
38%101st
45%55th
no-huddle share
85%31st
94%15th
pass rate, passing downs
52%123rd
55%110th
pass rate, red zone
31%105th
31%104th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.972nd
28.479th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
HOU offence
HOU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.439
280
3 of 138
success rate
0.579
280
2 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.123
280
118 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.307
280
13 of 138
rush: success rate
0.578
280
2 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.796
280
112 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.639
280
5 of 138
pass: success rate
0.593
280
3 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.580
280
63 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.581
280
7 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.569
280
1 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.904
280
3 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.099
280
5 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.857
280
13 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.129
280
11 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.100
280
15 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
280
16 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
280
45 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.300
280
129 of 138
UTAH offence
UTAH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.328
274
15 of 138
success rate
0.507
274
19 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.321
274
30 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.285
274
17 of 138
rush: success rate
0.490
274
32 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.167
274
11 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.397
274
31 of 138
pass: success rate
0.529
274
15 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.517
274
77 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.534
274
37 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.424
274
10 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.479
274
23 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.195
274
97 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
274
76 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.969
274
16 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
274
46 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
274
74 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.040
274
35 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.500
274
127 of 138
HOU defence
HOU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.099
246
85 of 138
success rate
0.394
246
70 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.360
246
112 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.095
246
28 of 138
rush: success rate
0.347
246
34 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.839
246
35 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.303
246
112 of 138
pass: success rate
0.443
246
106 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.651
246
101 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
246
73 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.280
246
68 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.318
246
15 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.214
246
94 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.643
246
38 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.812
246
130 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.211
246
126 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.098
246
68 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.114
246
137 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.500
246
127 of 138
UTAH defence
UTAH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.074
270
24 of 138
success rate
0.319
270
11 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.337
270
108 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.092
270
30 of 138
rush: success rate
0.324
270
23 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.944
270
79 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.083
270
14 of 138
pass: success rate
0.310
270
13 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.606
270
92 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.340
270
5 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.291
270
82 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.632
270
50 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.204
270
82 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
270
10 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.278
270
12 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
270
123 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.085
270
46 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.119
270
138 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
270
119 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs