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at
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Saturday 2026-10-17 · time TBA · McLane Stadium
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The trenches

Pass rushsack ratestopped behind the linefacessacks allowedpairing
BAY pass rush7.7% 13027th14.7% 2315thfaces TCU6.7% 10593rd7.2% ~2.4 sacks
TCU pass rush7.8% 7724th6.8% 161111thfaces BAY3.3% 12037th5.6% ~1.8 sacks

sacks from CFBD play-by-play; college has no charted pressure, and these rates are not opponent-adjusted Measured on 7,926 team-games 2022–25: a college line's sacks-allowed rate carries +0.27 into its next game and a defence's sack rate only +0.10 — the line is most of this. The pairing predicts the game's sack rate +0.27, yards per dropback −0.16 and points added per play −0.15. Heaviest quarter of pairings against lightest: 7.8% vs 4.2% sack rate, 6.1 vs 7.2 yards per dropback.

TCU with the ball

TCU offence vs BAY defenceTCU offenceBAY defencerank gap
points added per play0.17464th-0.11516th-48
success rate0.46251st0.32112th-39
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.24062nd1.13938th-24
rush: points added per play0.030104th-0.2575th-99
rush: success rate0.47051st0.2808th-43
rush: explosiveness0.771120th0.97088th-32
pass: points added per play0.31953rd-0.02525th-28
pass: success rate0.46452nd0.34423rd-29
pass: explosiveness1.66441st1.2849th-32
standard downs: success rate0.5739th0.3619th0
passing downs: success rate0.218130th0.25243rd-87
line yards per rush (the O-line)3.03084th2.50331st-53
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.16463rd0.264129th+66
short-yardage conversion rate0.84219th0.4004th-15
points per trip inside the 403.43399th1.9585th-94
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.13359th0.214127th+68
havoc allowed by the front seven0.104106th0.138122nd+16
havoc allowed by the secondary0.02912th0.076105th+93
average starting field position (yards from own goal)67.500113th——

BAY with the ball

BAY offence vs TCU defenceBAY offenceTCU defencerank gap
points added per play0.09298th-0.12114th-84
success rate0.401104th0.36847th-57
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.26355th0.9251st-54
rush: points added per play0.05590th-0.2863rd-87
rush: success rate0.44475th0.31617th-58
rush: explosiveness0.86297th0.4614th-93
pass: points added per play0.17787th0.07254th-33
pass: success rate0.373113th0.41785th-28
pass: explosiveness1.75623rd1.35921st-2
standard downs: success rate0.449109th0.40835th-74
passing downs: success rate0.29888th0.28272nd-16
line yards per rush (the O-line)2.93895th2.54435th-60
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.16973rd0.21190th+17
short-yardage conversion rate0.73777th0.56215th-62
points per trip inside the 403.393100th3.00049th-51
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.167102nd0.17994th-8
havoc allowed by the front seven0.103102nd0.117105th+3
havoc allowed by the secondary0.06492nd0.06377th-15
average starting field position (yards from own goal)64.200133rd——

Rank gap = the defence's FBS rank minus the offence's on the same measure: +60 means the offence ranks 60 places better than the defence it faces. Unit against unit only — college has no player charting to name a matchup by.