Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TCU wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
TCU
Games
4
Plays per game
69.8
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
8.2 (42nd, offence 58th, defence 28th)
Returning production
22% (pass 11%, rush 31%, receiving 29%)
UCF
Games
4
Plays per game
56.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
8.7 (40th, offence 65th, defence 23rd)
Returning production
25% (pass 4%, rush -17%, receiving 58%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TCU
UCF
pass rate, all downs
52%41st
43%106th
pass rate, standard downs
47%33rd
38%97th
pass rate, 1st down
46%43rd
43%68th
no-huddle share
97%10th
73%56th
pass rate, red zone
34%88th
24%123rd
pass rate, passing downs
63%72nd
55%112th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.924th
29.754th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TCU offence
TCU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.174
279
64 of 138
success rate
0.462
279
51 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.240
279
62 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.030
279
104 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
279
51 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.771
279
120 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.319
279
53 of 138
pass: success rate
0.464
279
52 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.664
279
41 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.573
279
9 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.218
279
130 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.030
279
84 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.164
279
63 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
279
19 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
279
99 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
279
59 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
279
106 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.029
279
12 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.500
279
113 of 138
UCF offence
UCF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
227
85 of 138
success rate
0.436
227
76 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.206
227
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.180
227
46 of 138
rush: success rate
0.445
227
74 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.165
227
12 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.053
227
113 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
227
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.278
227
130 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
227
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
227
87 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.052
227
80 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
227
78 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
227
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.769
227
21 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
227
65 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
227
92 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.040
227
34 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.200
227
136 of 138
TCU defence
TCU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.121
223
14 of 138
success rate
0.368
223
47 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.925
223
1 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.286
223
3 of 138
rush: success rate
0.316
223
17 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.461
223
4 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.072
223
54 of 138
pass: success rate
0.417
223
85 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.359
223
21 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.408
223
35 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.282
223
72 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.544
223
35 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.211
223
90 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
223
15 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
223
49 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
223
94 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
223
105 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
223
77 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
223
84 of 138
UCF defence
UCF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.047
289
32 of 138
success rate
0.343
289
25 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.275
289
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.119
289
23 of 138
rush: success rate
0.307
289
14 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.872
289
50 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.077
289
56 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
289
60 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.595
289
87 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.400
289
31 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.248
289
39 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.291
289
13 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.241
289
114 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
289
34 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.304
289
14 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
289
82 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.111
289
92 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
289
73 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
289
81 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs