Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). KSU wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
KSU
Games
4
Plays per game
74.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
14.0 (23rd, offence 21st, defence 34th)
Returning production
71% (pass 100%, rush 61%, receiving 57%)
CIN
Games
4
Plays per game
67.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
9.2 (38th, offence 23rd, defence 63rd)
Returning production
8% (pass 4%, rush 4%, receiving 15%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
KSU
CIN
pass rate, all downs
48%67th
40%122nd
pass rate, standard downs
42%63rd
37%104th
pass rate, 1st down
44%60th
40%90th
no-huddle share
76%51st
68%63rd
pass rate, passing downs
63%74th
47%131st
pass rate, red zone
43%47th
30%107th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.168th
28.380th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
KSU offence
KSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.307
296
18 of 138
success rate
0.514
296
15 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.215
296
74 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.320
296
11 of 138
rush: success rate
0.560
296
6 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.016
296
52 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.305
296
56 of 138
pass: success rate
0.471
296
50 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.484
296
89 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.549
296
28 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.433
296
7 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.398
296
29 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
296
30 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
296
60 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.963
296
17 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.084
296
5 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
296
17 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.027
296
8 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.100
296
76 of 138
CIN offence
CIN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.363
270
11 of 138
success rate
0.496
270
27 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
270
35 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.361
270
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
270
26 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.224
270
8 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.385
270
34 of 138
pass: success rate
0.509
270
26 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.432
270
105 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.560
270
17 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.338
270
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.677
270
11 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
270
26 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
270
22 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.200
270
8 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.107
270
20 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
270
88 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.011
270
2 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.200
270
95 of 138
KSU defence
KSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.039
223
33 of 138
success rate
0.305
223
7 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.495
223
135 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.071
223
85 of 138
rush: success rate
0.341
223
32 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.443
223
138 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.119
223
10 of 138
pass: success rate
0.258
223
1 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.643
223
98 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.333
223
3 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.266
223
56 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.511
223
32 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.256
223
126 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.417
223
5 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.857
223
103 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.238
223
134 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.193
223
137 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.045
223
30 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.100
223
109 of 138
CIN defence
CIN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.102
270
88 of 138
success rate
0.415
270
87 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
270
60 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.113
270
102 of 138
rush: success rate
0.482
270
129 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.828
270
33 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.220
270
93 of 138
pass: success rate
0.378
270
51 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.565
270
75 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.462
270
80 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.318
270
105 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.217
270
115 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.179
270
44 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
270
45 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.947
270
108 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
270
74 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
270
84 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
270
54 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.500
270
126 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs