Line has moved -0.5 since we first saw it (KSU -6.5 to KSU -6).
Betting
Spread
KSU favouredMarket KSU −6Ours KSU −6.9
CIN favouredgap 0.9 toward KSU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| KSU away | -6.0 | 30.8 | -238 | 67.5% | 68% |
| CIN home | +6.0 | 24.8 | +195 | 32.5% | 33% |
| Total | 55.5 | |
KSU -6.5 when first seen, now KSU -6 · total 54.5 then, 55.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| KSU away | -7.0 | 31.2 | 68.0% | -1.0 |
| CIN home | +7.0 | 24.3 | 32.0% | +1.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| KSU away | -9.0 | 31.9 | 73.0% | -3.0 |
| CIN home | +9.0 | 22.9 | 27.0% | +3.0 |
| Total | 54.8 | | | -0.7 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | KSU | CIN |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +4.829th | +1.152nd |
| Defence (cards) | +1.042nd | -0.265th |
| Card team rating | +5.931st | +0.956th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +14.023rd | +9.238th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.720th | +0.343rd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.119th | +0.643rd |
| Card line | CIN +6.9 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 71% | 8% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Avery Johnson KSU88 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.427
Completion66.2%
TD–INT7-2
Pass attempts, median game31
Pass yards, median game213
Rush yards, median game58
Games this season4
Team throws per game34.8
JC French IV CIN78 ▲1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.397
Completion74.5%
TD–INT6-0
Pass attempts, median game19
Pass yards, median game205
Rush yards, median game46
Games this season4
Team throws per game25.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| KSU away | 2-2 | 50% | +3.9 | 3-1 | +3.5 |
| CIN home | 3-1 | 75% | +7.0 | 3-1 | +6.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Nippert Stadium · turf · 755 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 66°F, wind 4 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | KSU 7 days · CIN 7 days |
| Travel | KSU 647 miles, body clock 6:00pm at kickoff, -322 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| KSU | W. Anciaux TE | out Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 28 | Anciaux suffered an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| KSU | A. Morrell TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Morrell is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will take the field against Houston on Saturday, October 10th. |
| KSU | M. Lovett WR | questionable Arm | Sun, Sep 27 | Lovett id dealing with an arm injury and it is unclear if he will play against Houston on Saturday, October 10th. |
| KSU | D. Duff QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Duff is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will take the field against Houston on Saturday, October 10th. |
| KSU | B. Barnett QB | questionable Lower Body | Sun, Sep 27 | Barnett is bothered by a lower body injury, and it remains to be seen if he will take the field against Houston on Saturday, October 10th. |
| KSU | J. Knuth QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Knuth is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Houston Saturday, October 10th. |
| KSU | J. Pastore OG | out Leg | Fri, Aug 21 | Pastore has been shut down for the remainder of the season with a lower leg injury. |
| CIN | G. Kontosis WR | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Kontosis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Arizona on Saturday. |
| CIN | D. Witherspoon TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Witherspoon is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Arizona on Saturday, October 3th. |