Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BAY wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
COLO
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
-3.3 (82nd, offence 99th, defence 59th)
Returning production
14% (pass -26%, rush -37%, receiving 39%)
BAY
Games
4
Plays per game
82.2
Drives per game
13.8
SP+
8.1 (43rd, offence 55th, defence 31st)
Returning production
60% (pass 78%, rush 68%, receiving 47%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
COLO
BAY
pass rate, all downs
50%55th
51%47th
pass rate, passing downs
56%106th
75%17th
no-huddle share
98%5th
99%1st
pass rate, standard downs
47%30th
40%83rd
pass rate, 1st down
53%11th
40%94th
pass rate, red zone
32%98th
46%31st
seconds per play (own drives)
24.9128th
23.3136th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
COLO offence
COLO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.059
294
104 of 138
success rate
0.398
294
110 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.202
294
85 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.019
294
119 of 138
rush: success rate
0.404
294
101 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.852
294
100 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.113
294
106 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
294
104 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.606
294
54 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.439
294
119 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
294
70 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.133
294
68 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.144
294
41 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.619
294
117 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.217
294
134 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.184
294
126 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.122
294
127 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
294
85 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.100
294
14 of 138
BAY offence
BAY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.092
329
98 of 138
success rate
0.401
329
104 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.263
329
55 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.055
329
90 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
329
75 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.862
329
97 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.177
329
87 of 138
pass: success rate
0.373
329
113 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.756
329
23 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
329
109 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.298
329
88 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.938
329
95 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.169
329
73 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
329
77 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.393
329
100 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
329
102 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.103
329
102 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
329
92 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
64.200
329
133 of 138
COLO defence
COLO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.007
283
54 of 138
success rate
0.382
283
61 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.207
283
62 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.135
283
20 of 138
rush: success rate
0.410
283
75 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.675
283
12 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.225
283
94 of 138
pass: success rate
0.365
283
39 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.830
283
127 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.415
283
42 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.320
283
107 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.370
283
23 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.317
283
136 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.647
283
39 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.935
283
44 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.201
283
118 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.138
283
123 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
283
78 of 138
opponent average starting field position
67.400
283
9 of 138
BAY defence
BAY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.115
290
16 of 138
success rate
0.321
290
12 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.139
290
38 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.257
290
5 of 138
rush: success rate
0.280
290
8 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.970
290
88 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.025
290
25 of 138
pass: success rate
0.344
290
23 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.284
290
9 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.361
290
9 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.252
290
43 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.503
290
31 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.264
290
129 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.400
290
4 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.958
290
5 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.214
290
127 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.138
290
122 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.076
290
105 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.100
290
51 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs