Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ASU wins about 72% of the time at a number like ours.
ASU
Games
3
Plays per game
67.3
Drives per game
13.3
SP+
3.0 (60th, offence 73rd, defence 46th)
Returning production
16% (pass 5%, rush -5%, receiving 31%)
KU
Games
3
Plays per game
73.3
Drives per game
12.3
SP+
1.0 (66th, offence 70th, defence 67th)
Returning production
18% (pass -1%, rush 14%, receiving 33%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ASU
KU
pass rate, all downs
49%65th
44%100th
pass rate, standard downs
44%48th
38%98th
pass rate, 1st down
50%22nd
37%108th
no-huddle share
89%24th
24%106th
pass rate, passing downs
57%102nd
55%113th
pass rate, red zone
50%21st
30%106th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.691st
26.8103rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ASU offence
ASU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.058
202
105 of 138
success rate
0.416
202
97 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.396
202
18 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.018
202
110 of 138
rush: success rate
0.396
202
107 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
202
37 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
202
85 of 138
pass: success rate
0.447
202
65 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.743
202
27 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.463
202
97 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.318
202
67 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.690
202
122 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.198
202
101 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
202
50 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
202
88 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
202
96 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
202
104 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.059
202
81 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.000
202
109 of 138
KU offence
KU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.202
220
59 of 138
success rate
0.441
220
70 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.429
220
10 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.097
220
80 of 138
rush: success rate
0.446
220
72 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.944
220
76 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.284
220
60 of 138
pass: success rate
0.413
220
90 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.042
220
3 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.504
220
56 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
220
58 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.269
220
47 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.099
220
6 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.545
220
130 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.167
220
115 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
220
115 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.100
220
96 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.073
220
114 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.100
220
30 of 138
ASU defence
ASU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
189
63 of 138
success rate
0.370
189
50 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.179
189
49 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.026
189
45 of 138
rush: success rate
0.394
189
62 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.838
189
34 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.096
189
60 of 138
pass: success rate
0.337
189
21 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.600
189
90 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
189
72 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.224
189
22 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.907
189
81 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.149
189
23 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.636
189
36 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.684
189
28 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
189
64 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.090
189
55 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
189
92 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.000
189
33 of 138
KU defence
KU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.068
195
26 of 138
success rate
0.308
195
8 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.235
195
73 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.157
195
15 of 138
rush: success rate
0.268
195
5 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.765
195
25 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.275
195
105 of 138
pass: success rate
0.377
195
50 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.718
195
113 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.364
195
10 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.221
195
19 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.132
195
6 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
195
122 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
195
84 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.238
195
60 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.200
195
117 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.144
195
127 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
195
57 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.200
195
6 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs