Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). HOU wins about 89% of the time at a number like ours.
HOU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
12.1 (29th, offence 15th, defence 53rd)
Returning production
81% (pass 92%, rush 523%, receiving 61%)
GASO
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-8.6 (103rd, offence 95th, defence 104th)
Returning production
6% (pass -4%, rush 7%, receiving 9%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
HOU
GASO
pass rate, all downs
42%116th
62%3rd
pass rate, standard downs
39%88th
54%4th
pass rate, 1st down
38%101st
56%4th
no-huddle share
85%31st
83%39th
pass rate, passing downs
52%123rd
80%3rd
pass rate, red zone
31%105th
40%63rd
seconds per play (own drives)
28.972nd
27.594th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
HOU offence
HOU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.439
280
3 of 138
success rate
0.579
280
2 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.123
280
118 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.307
280
13 of 138
rush: success rate
0.578
280
2 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.796
280
112 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.639
280
5 of 138
pass: success rate
0.593
280
3 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.580
280
63 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.581
280
7 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.569
280
1 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.904
280
3 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.099
280
5 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.857
280
13 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.129
280
11 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.100
280
15 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
280
16 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
280
45 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.300
280
129 of 138
GASO offence
GASO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.103
285
91 of 138
success rate
0.418
285
92 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.171
285
97 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.020
285
109 of 138
rush: success rate
0.440
285
80 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.767
285
122 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.197
285
82 of 138
pass: success rate
0.405
285
95 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.450
285
100 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.457
285
102 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.326
285
61 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.080
285
73 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.138
285
35 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
285
65 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.762
285
76 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
285
121 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.105
285
107 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.074
285
117 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.000
285
8 of 138
HOU defence
HOU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.099
246
85 of 138
success rate
0.394
246
70 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.360
246
112 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.095
246
28 of 138
rush: success rate
0.347
246
34 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.839
246
35 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.303
246
112 of 138
pass: success rate
0.443
246
106 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.651
246
101 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
246
73 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.280
246
68 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.318
246
15 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.214
246
94 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.643
246
38 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.812
246
130 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.211
246
126 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.098
246
68 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.114
246
137 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.500
246
127 of 138
GASO defence
GASO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.086
255
81 of 138
success rate
0.373
255
54 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.175
255
48 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.001
255
59 of 138
rush: success rate
0.375
255
50 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
255
27 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.283
255
108 of 138
pass: success rate
0.391
255
68 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.568
255
77 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.411
255
38 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
255
88 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.545
255
36 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
255
121 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
255
47 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.667
255
92 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
255
109 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.133
255
117 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.055
255
52 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.100
255
26 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs