Betting
Spread
HOU favouredMarket HOU −17.5Ours HOU −20.1
GASO favouredgap 2.6 toward HOU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| HOU away | -17.5 | 37.0 | -950 | 86.8% | 89% |
| GASO home | +17.5 | 19.5 | +625 | 13.2% | 12% |
| Total | 56.5 | |
HOU -17.5 when first seen, now HOU -17.5 · total 54.5 then, 56.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| HOU away | -20.0 | 38.3 | 90.2% | -2.5 |
| GASO home | +20.0 | 18.2 | 9.8% | +2.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| HOU away | -14.0 | 36.0 | 82.8% | +3.5 |
| GASO home | +14.0 | 22.1 | 17.2% | -3.5 |
| Total | 58.0 | | | +1.5 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | HOU | GASO |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +7.612th | -2.487th |
| Defence (cards) | +0.848th | -1.2101st |
| Card team rating | +8.417th | -3.789th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +12.129th | -8.6103rd |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.248th | -0.6108th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.739th | -0.8106th |
| Card line | GASO +20.1 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 81% | 6% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Conner Weigman HOU87 ▲1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.593
Completion71.6%
TD–INT11-1
Pass attempts, median game26
Pass yards, median game261
Rush yards, median game22
Games this season4
Team throws per game27.5
Max Johnson GASO76 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.168
Completion66.2%
TD–INT5-1
Pass attempts, median game39
Pass yards, median game263
Rush yards, median game-2
Games this season4
Team throws per game41.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| HOU away | 2-2 | 50% | +3.4 | 4-0 | +9.8 |
| GASO home | 3-1 | 75% | +2.8 | 2-2 | -6.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Allen E. Paulson Stadium · turf · 201 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 79°F, wind 5 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | HOU 7 days · GASO 6 days |
| Travel | HOU 823 miles, body clock 3:00pm at kickoff, +170 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| HOU | E. Noel K | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Noel has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Knights on Saturday. |
| HOU | J. Strozier Jr. WR | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 16 | Strozier is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, not expected to play on Friday against the Texas Tech. |
| HOU | J. Ridgle RB | questionable Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 16 | Ridgle is dealing with undisclosed injury, it is unclear if he will play Friday against the Texas. |
| HOU | M. Tounkara WR | out Foot | Tue, Aug 11 | Tounkara is nursing with a foot injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date. |
| HOU | L. McGary TE | out Shoulder | Tue, Aug 11 | McGary has been sidelined due to shoulder injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |
| GASO | T. Bradshaw WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Bradshaw is managing with an undisclosed injury , but it is expected to play against Coastal Carolina on Saturday. |
| GASO | T. Gibbs RB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Gibbs is managing with an undisclosed injury , but it is expected to play against Coastal Carolina on Saturday. |
| GASO | J. Ware WR | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Ware is dealing with an undiscloed injury, and it is unclear whether he will face against Coastal Carolina on Saturday. |
| GASO | A. Hollins WR | out Shoulder | Thu, Oct 1 | Hollins is liad up with a shoulder injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season. |
| GASO | J. Dallas WR | questionable Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 30 | Dallas is dealing with an undiscloed injury, and it is unclear whether he will face against Coastal Carolina on Saturday. |