Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TCU wins about 84% of the time at a number like ours.
ARST
Games
4
Plays per game
58.8
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-9.5 (107th, offence 93rd, defence 110th)
Returning production
30% (pass 7%, rush -246%, receiving 54%)
TCU
Games
4
Plays per game
69.8
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
8.2 (42nd, offence 58th, defence 28th)
Returning production
22% (pass 11%, rush 31%, receiving 29%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ARST
TCU
pass rate, all downs
47%78th
52%41st
pass rate, standard downs
40%86th
47%33rd
pass rate, 1st down
43%69th
46%43rd
no-huddle share
33%99th
97%10th
pass rate, passing downs
67%52nd
63%72nd
pass rate, red zone
32%102nd
34%88th
seconds per play (own drives)
33.54th
30.924th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ARST offence
ARST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.152
235
72 of 138
success rate
0.485
235
34 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.147
235
109 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.237
235
29 of 138
rush: success rate
0.504
235
22 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.962
235
72 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.124
235
102 of 138
pass: success rate
0.472
235
48 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.402
235
113 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.555
235
23 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.290
235
90 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.371
235
30 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.146
235
42 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
235
74 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.435
235
96 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
235
67 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
235
36 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.068
235
106 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
235
85 of 138
TCU offence
TCU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.174
279
64 of 138
success rate
0.462
279
51 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.240
279
62 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.030
279
104 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
279
51 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.771
279
120 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.319
279
53 of 138
pass: success rate
0.464
279
52 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.664
279
41 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.573
279
9 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.218
279
130 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.030
279
84 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.164
279
63 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
279
19 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
279
99 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
279
59 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
279
106 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.029
279
12 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.500
279
113 of 138
ARST defence
ARST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.161
256
111 of 138
success rate
0.453
256
120 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.244
256
80 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.025
256
68 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
256
116 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.890
256
60 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.462
256
133 of 138
pass: success rate
0.455
256
110 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.804
256
121 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
256
112 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
256
110 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.389
256
126 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.136
256
16 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
256
89 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.476
256
76 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
256
16 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
256
16 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.055
256
51 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.700
256
103 of 138
TCU defence
TCU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.121
223
14 of 138
success rate
0.368
223
47 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.925
223
1 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.286
223
3 of 138
rush: success rate
0.316
223
17 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.461
223
4 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.072
223
54 of 138
pass: success rate
0.417
223
85 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.359
223
21 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.408
223
35 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.282
223
72 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.544
223
35 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.211
223
90 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
223
15 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
223
49 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
223
94 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
223
105 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
223
77 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
223
84 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs