Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ISU wins about 84% of the time at a number like ours.
BGSU
Games
4
Plays per game
58.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-26.4 (136th, offence 138th, defence 126th)
Returning production
-6% (pass 940%, rush 0%, receiving 3%)
ISU
Games
4
Plays per game
60.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
3.4 (58th, offence 86th, defence 39th)
Returning production
2% (pass 3%, rush 5%, receiving 0%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BGSU
ISU
pass rate, all downs
45%95th
41%119th
pass rate, standard downs
38%99th
35%114th
pass rate, 1st down
38%105th
31%122nd
no-huddle share
29%102nd
36%92nd
pass rate, passing downs
59%94th
53%117th
pass rate, red zone
25%122nd
28%116th
seconds per play (own drives)
32.68th
30.436th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BGSU offence
BGSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.115
232
136 of 138
success rate
0.336
232
135 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.958
232
138 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.261
232
138 of 138
rush: success rate
0.302
232
138 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.577
232
136 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.059
232
111 of 138
pass: success rate
0.364
232
119 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
232
101 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.431
232
124 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.152
232
137 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.431
232
135 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.246
232
133 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
232
80 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.188
232
138 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.194
232
129 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.138
232
135 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.056
232
76 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.300
232
53 of 138
ISU offence
ISU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.117
241
87 of 138
success rate
0.382
241
119 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.334
241
25 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.105
241
76 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
241
114 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.191
241
10 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.205
241
78 of 138
pass: success rate
0.402
241
96 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.546
241
70 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
241
127 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
241
86 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.993
241
90 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.190
241
92 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.583
241
122 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.636
241
29 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.170
241
109 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.083
241
57 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.087
241
133 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.100
241
60 of 138
BGSU defence
BGSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.227
242
127 of 138
success rate
0.492
242
135 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
242
93 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.251
242
132 of 138
rush: success rate
0.520
242
137 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.216
242
133 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.277
242
106 of 138
pass: success rate
0.477
242
122 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.438
242
39 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.556
242
136 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.306
242
94 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.436
242
133 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.169
242
36 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
242
81 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.231
242
121 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.120
242
13 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.091
242
56 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.029
242
2 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.100
242
35 of 138
ISU defence
ISU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.038
243
35 of 138
success rate
0.370
243
51 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.093
243
25 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.082
243
31 of 138
rush: success rate
0.374
243
49 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.864
243
44 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.069
243
52 of 138
pass: success rate
0.362
243
34 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.439
243
41 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.467
243
85 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.158
243
1 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.576
243
40 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.198
243
75 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
243
59 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.048
243
6 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
243
86 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.128
243
115 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
243
38 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.800
243
32 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs