Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). CIN wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
M-OH
Games
4
Plays per game
58.8
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-4.3 (88th, offence 86th, defence 91st)
Returning production
14% (pass -2%, rush 33%, receiving 13%)
CIN
Games
4
Plays per game
67.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
9.2 (38th, offence 23rd, defence 63rd)
Returning production
8% (pass 4%, rush 4%, receiving 15%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
M-OH
CIN
pass rate, all downs
52%40th
40%122nd
pass rate, standard downs
41%72nd
37%104th
pass rate, 1st down
47%40th
40%90th
no-huddle share
22%109th
68%63rd
pass rate, passing downs
74%24th
47%131st
pass rate, red zone
22%127th
30%107th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.533rd
28.380th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
M-OH offence
M-OH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.239
235
43 of 138
success rate
0.430
235
82 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.426
235
12 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.017
235
111 of 138
rush: success rate
0.389
235
111 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.877
235
92 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.619
235
6 of 138
pass: success rate
0.487
235
37 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.867
235
11 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.488
235
74 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.301
235
83 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.871
235
100 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.212
235
116 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
235
104 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.909
235
70 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.149
235
79 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
235
115 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
235
24 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.000
235
63 of 138
CIN offence
CIN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.363
270
11 of 138
success rate
0.496
270
27 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
270
35 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.361
270
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
270
26 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.224
270
8 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.385
270
34 of 138
pass: success rate
0.509
270
26 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.432
270
105 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.560
270
17 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.338
270
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.677
270
11 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
270
26 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
270
22 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.200
270
8 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.107
270
20 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
270
88 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.011
270
2 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.200
270
95 of 138
M-OH defence
M-OH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.179
260
116 of 138
success rate
0.450
260
115 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.316
260
102 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.065
260
83 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
260
86 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.985
260
91 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.372
260
123 of 138
pass: success rate
0.483
260
125 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.529
260
62 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.509
260
117 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
260
116 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.860
260
69 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.217
260
98 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
260
101 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.700
260
129 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.104
260
2 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.065
260
9 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.038
260
13 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
260
80 of 138
CIN defence
CIN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.102
270
88 of 138
success rate
0.415
270
87 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
270
60 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.113
270
102 of 138
rush: success rate
0.482
270
129 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.828
270
33 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.220
270
93 of 138
pass: success rate
0.378
270
51 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.565
270
75 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.462
270
80 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.318
270
105 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.217
270
115 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.179
270
44 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
270
45 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.947
270
108 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
270
74 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
270
84 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
270
54 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.500
270
126 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs